Arab nations inch toward rehabilitating Syria’s Assad
The debate now appears to be about when, not whether, to readmit Syria to the Arab League. At a meeting in Cairo on Wednesday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shukri said Syria’s return to the League is connected to developments on the political track to end the crisis.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohamed Alhakim, speaking in Baghdad at a joint press conference with his Iranian counterpart, said Sunday that his country supports efforts to restore Syria’s membership in the Arab League.
In Lebanon, some officials insist Syria should be invited to an Arab economic summit the country is hosting next week, although final decision rests with the League.
“It could happen slower or faster, but if Assad is going to stay where he is, then obviously countries in the region are going to try to make the best of that situation,” said Aron Lund, a fellow with The Century Foundation. “American politicians can sit in splendid isolation on the other side of an ocean and pretend Syria isn’t what it is,” he said. “But King Abdullah of Jordan can’t.”
The Arab overtures come amid a shifting landscape in the Western world.
The planned US pull-out from Syria is part of Trump’s “America First” policy. He has repeatedly said he was not interested in removing Assad from power or keeping American troops involved in “endless wars” in the region, most recently describing Syria as “sand and death”.
Right wing parties and populist movements on the rise in Europe are also on friendly terms with Assad, seeing him as a secular bulwark against Islamic extremists.
Even Turkey, whose president in 2012 famously vowed to pray at Omayyad Mosque in Damascus after Assad’s ouster, has signalled it would consider working with Assad again if he wins in free and fair elections.
For Syrians who rose up against Assad’s rule, it can seem like the country is right back where it started eight years ago, only with half a million dead and cities in ruins.
Analysts believe Syria under Assad will likely continue to face conflicts and sputter on in limbo for years to come, with only a partial recovery. But he will likely cling to power and do business with anyone who will do business with him.
“I don’t imagine Assad’s Syria becoming a fine, upstanding member of the international community, but nor do I think it will languish in isolation,” Itani said.