Costa Rica: On election front morality trumps economics
COSTA RICA is one of the most conservative countries in Latin America. It is the only one in the region to have an official religion.
Since the Constitution of 1847, Catholicism has been the official faith. A 2011 survey by the University of Costa Rica found that 47 per cent of the population considered itself to be practising Catholics, 23 per cent were non-practising Catholics and 16 per cent were evangelicals.
Another survey found that 77 per cent of the population considered itself to be conservative. Therefore, it is no surprise that a court ruling by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights at the start of this year became such a galvanising issue. The court decided that Costa Rica, like the other countries of the region, had to recognise same-sex marriage, as well as legal rights for the LGBT community. At a time when the presidential campaign was well under way in the run-up to elections on February 4, the court decision broke like a thunderclap. Overnight, the political landscape was transformed and the presidential elections were drastically altered.
Costa Rica is known as one of the most stable democracies in Latin America. With a twoparty system, the political leadership traditionally alternated between the centre-right National Liberation Party, or PLN, and the centre-left Social Christian Unity Party, the PUSC. However, the established political parties have fragmented over the last few years into smaller parties and factions.
Surveys have shown that party identity has declined considerably across the population, and the electorate has been showing signs of repeatedly switching sides. The lack of political identity and loyalty became manifested this year into a crowded field of 13 contenders vying for the presidency.
Under Costa Rican electoral rules, a candidate needs 40 per cent of the vote to win the presidential elections in the first round. Otherwise, the two leading candidates proceed to ballotage, or a second round of voting.
One of the distant contenders was Fabricio Alvarado, an evangelical pop music singer, from the National Renovation party, the RN. Although he had served in the National
Assembly, or backing. he However, the court decision on had no real political experience the LGBT rights propelled him into first place as he railed against the court order. He vowed that he would ignore the court order if elected. Moreover, if the court insisted on implementing its decision, he would take Costa Rica out of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights.
A large swathe of the electorate rallied around the political newcomer, and he was able to win 26 per cent of the vote. At the same time, his RN party was able to secure 14 per cent of the seats in the National Assembly. Second place was taken by Carlos Alvarado of the Citizen’s Action Party, the PAC. He had a more conciliatory position, and said he would respect the court’s decision. His party won 10 per cent of the assembly seats.
The PLN and PUSC candidates, however, did not manage to make it into the run-off elections. This was the first time in more than six decades that neither of the parties were represented in the ballotage. However, the PLN won 17 per cent of the legislative seats, while the PUSC got nine per cent.
Eyes on alliances
be Now made all to eyes cobble are set on what alliances will together a legislative majority. Neither the PLN nor the PUSC have indicated which candidate they will back. Likewise, the candidates have been very quiet on the composition of their economic teams or details on their policy platforms.
Given the centre-right political tilt of the PLN, they are more likely to back the leading
contender, Fabricio Alvarado. Most Costa Ricans consider this to be the more marketfriendly scenario.
While both parties recognise that the country’s fiscal deficit of 6.2 per cent of GDP and debt-to-GDP ratio of 48 per cent are serious problems that need to be attended, there is a variance in their approaches. The PLN prefers to implement a thorough fiscal adjustment, which will be a combination of a reduction in spending and measures to reduce tax evasion. At the same time, the PUSC prefers to implement minor spending cuts, while preserving high public-sector employment levels and generous social benefits.
The national elections should have been a referendum on the economic direction of the country. However, the process has been hijacked by morality issues. The LGBT topic will become even more poignant, given that the second round is scheduled for April 1, which is also Easter Sunday.
Not surprisingly, the polling data suggests that Fabricio Alvarado will win the race. However, the investor community is clamouring for some insights to what lies ahead on the economic front.
Fortunately, this may become more apparent when the political parties begin to form their alliances. This is when we could see Fabricio Alvarado align himself with the more centre-right political factions of Costa Rica.