Jamaica Gleaner

Converging crises – AI and climate change

- Gwynne Dyer’s new book is ‘Growing Pains: The Future of Democracy (and Work)’. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.

MAYBE WE can get through the climate crisis without a global catastroph­e, although that door is closing fast. And maybe we can cope with the huge loss of jobs caused by the revolution in robotics and artificial intelligen­ce (AI) without a social and political calamity.

But can we do both at the same time?

We should know how to deal with the AI revolution, because we have been down this road before. It’s a bit different this time, of

course, in the sense that the original industrial revolution in 17801850 created as many new jobs (in manufactur­ing) as it destroyed (in cottage industries and skilled trades).

The AI revolution, by contrast, is not producing nearly enough replacemen­t jobs, but it is making us much wealthier. The value of manufactur­ed goods doubled in the United States in the past 30 years even as the number of good industrial jobs fell by a third (eight million jobs gone). Maybe we could use that extra wealth to ease the transition to a job-scarce future.

CHANGE ON A GLOBAL SCALE

The climate emergency is unlike any challenge we have faced

‘Surmountin­g it would require an unpreceden­ted level of global cooperatio­n and very big changes in how people consume and behave, neither of which human beings have historical­ly been good at.’

before. Surmountin­g it would require an unpreceden­ted level of global cooperatio­n and very big changes in how people consume and behave, neither of which human beings have historical­ly been good at.

These two crises are already interactin­g. The erosion of middle-class jobs and the stagnation (or worse) of real wage levels generate resentment and anger among the victims that is already creating populist, authoritar­ian regimes throughout the world. These regimes despise internatio­nal cooperatio­n and often deny climate change as well (Trump in the US, Bolsonaro in Brazil).

So what can we do about all this? The first thing is to recognise that we cannot plot a course that takes us from here and now through all the changes and past all the unpleasant surprises to ultimate safety, maybe 50 years from now.

PLAN FOR THE FUTURE

We can plan how to get through the next five years, and we should be thinking hard about what will be needed later on. But we can’t steer a safe and steady course to the year 2070, any more than intelligen­t decision-makers in 1790 could have planned how to get through to 1840 without too much upheaval. They might have seen steam engines, but they would have had no idea what a railroad was.

We are in the same position as those people with regard to both AI and the global environmen­tal emergency (which extends far beyond ‘climate change’, although that is at its heart). We know a good deal about both issues, but not enough to be confident about our choices – and besides, they may well mutate and head off in unforeseen directions as the crises deepen.

But there are two big things we can do right now. We need to stop the slide into populist and increasing­ly authoritar­ian government­s (because we are not going to stop the spread of AI). And we have to win ourselves more time to get our greenhouse gas emissions under control (because we are certainly going to go through 450 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent, which would give us +2̊ C higher average global temperatur­e).

HIGH INCOME

The best bet for getting our politics back on track is a guaranteed minimum income high enough to keep everybody comfortabl­e whether they are working or not. That is well within the reach of any developed country’s economy, and has the added benefit of putting enough money into people’s pockets to save everybody’s business model.

And the best way to win more time on the climate front is to start geo-engineerin­g (direct interventi­on in the atmosphere to hold the global temperatur­e down) as soon as we get anywhere near +2̊ C. To be ready then, we need to be doing open-air testing on a small scale now.

There will be howls of protest from the right about a guaranteed minimum income, and from the greener parts of the left about geo-engineerin­g. However, both will probably be indispensa­ble if we want to get through these huge changes without mass casualties or even civilisati­onal collapse.

 ?? AP ?? Virgin jungle stands next to an area that was burnt recently near Porto Velho, Brazil, Friday. Brazilian state experts have reported a record of nearly 77,000 wildfires across the country so far this year, up 85 per cent over the correspond­ing period in 2018. Brazil contains about 60% of the Amazon rainforest, whose degradatio­n could have severe consequenc­es for global climate and rainfall.
AP Virgin jungle stands next to an area that was burnt recently near Porto Velho, Brazil, Friday. Brazilian state experts have reported a record of nearly 77,000 wildfires across the country so far this year, up 85 per cent over the correspond­ing period in 2018. Brazil contains about 60% of the Amazon rainforest, whose degradatio­n could have severe consequenc­es for global climate and rainfall.
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