‘ZERO MATTERS’
Net zero emissions said key to Caribbean resilience
ZERO NEVER looked so good, according to one local academic who yesterday made the case for the need to achieve net zero emissions in order to avert a climate crisis in the Caribbean.
Net zero is the point at which the amount of greenhouse gases going into the atmosphere are balanced by the amount that is removed, with the goal to restrain the ongoing warming of the planet.
“If it were simply to count down to zero and let’s say we started that count at two, two would remind us that we are on track to exceed two degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century if we do not have deep reductions in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases,” said physicist, Professor Michael Taylor.
He was addressing Jamaica’s national stakeholder engagement session, hosted ahead of the international climate negotiations set for November this year.
“If we follow the latest IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report, when we reach two degrees and above in the Caribbean, significant changes happen … In the months when we expect to get rainfall, we will get less rainfall … Warming is going to continue ... Ocean acidification is going to increase significantly as well as the frequency and intensity of marine heat waves,” the scientist explained.
Added to that is higher sea levels combined with storm surges and waves that cause greater coastal erosion and more intense hurricanes that are a blow to the economy – as seen in the region over recent years. Events such as Irma, Maria, Jose, and Dorian – all category five hurricanes – resulted in many lives lost and billions of dollars in damage across the Caribbean.
It is for these reasons that the Caribbean has for some time now championed‘1.5 to stay alive’, insisting that exceeding global temperatures of 1.5 degrees Celsius could spell death for the region.
And even so, Taylor, who was a lead author for the IPCC’s special report on 1.5 degrees of global warming, said “we must remember that 1.5 does not equal a safe climate for the Caribbean”.
“Even when we reach 1.5, our research says that we will have 40 per cent less hydro power in Suriname, diminished agricultural productivity in Jamaica, two to three times higher regional cost on damages from intense events, drying of four per cent across the region and inundation and loss of coastal infrastructure. 1.5 is compromised target,” he said.
As for one degree, for Taylor it is a reminder that global temperatures have already exceeded this mark since pre-industrial times.
“At the one degree that we have passed, we are faced with diminishing capacity to cope. The repeated incidents of extreme weather and the magnitude that we have simply reduces our capacity to cope,” he said.
“From the science perspective, if we are going to achieve any limitation of temperatures, whether 1.5 or two, we have to reach net zero carbon dioxide emissions this century. 1.5 or two is conditioned on net zero. Net zero means that what we are putting out is to be matched by what we are taking in,” Taylor added.
CLEAN ENERGY
A 2020 article by IPCC chair, Dr Hoesung Lee, and Executive Director for the International Energy Agency (IEA), Dr Fatih Birol, point to the need to tackle energy in the so-called ‘race to zero’.
“The good news is we already have affordable, reliable technologies that can put the peak in global emissions behind us and start the drive down to net zero. The spectacular rise of renewable technologies like solar panels and wind turbines in recent years has shown us what is possible. Deployed quickly and on a major scale, the clean energy technologies we have at our disposal right now can bring about the kind of decline in energy-related emissions that would put the world on track for our longer-term climate goals,” they wrote.
Also in the article headlined ‘Energy is at the heart of the solution to the climate challenge’, they pointed to the opportunity presented by the COVID19 pandemic.
“The ambitious recovery plans that governments are pursuing to counter the damage caused by the pandemic offer a unique opportunity to drive much greater investment in key energy technologies such as more efficient vehicles and buildings, renewables and state-of-the art electricity grids,” they said.
“According to recent analysis by the IEA together with the International Monetary Fund, a combination of policy actions and targeted investments over the next three years could bring about a sustainable recovery, boosting global economic growth, creating millions of jobs and making 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions,” Lee and Birol added.