Vaccine equity is essential to global economic recovery
Ensuring that poorer countries gain access to Covid-19 vaccines is not only the right thing to do from a moral point of view but also in the economic interests of the richer countries that have secured vaccines for themselves, says Dr Desné Masie
There will be no global economic recovery from the pandemic until everyone is safe. This will require global herd immunity to allow for the free movement of people, capital and goods. The main way that will be achievable is through mass immunisation and global vaccine equity. Covax, the global initiative aimed at providing equitable access to Covid-19 vaccines, is a good start. However, it relies on altruism and making the moral case for health and safety.
Unfortunately, I don’t believe the acceleration of global vaccine equity will gather pace unless we appeal to the bottom line for business and political leaders.
According to Citi Research, Covid-19 vaccination will lead to “herd immunity” in the final quarter of 2021, at least in richer countries, provided vaccines are at least 70% effective. Many richer countries have secured vaccine pre-orders, and will be the first to experience the economic benefits of herd immunity.
Overall, Citi forecasts that Covid-19 vaccination could raise global economic growth by 0.7% in 2021, and 3% in 2022 as activity returns to normal. But vaccine nationalism in rich countries is ultimately short-sighted given our interconnected world (see box opposite). We need to get everyone safe and moving again if we want a global recovery.
The case for appealing to the bottom line is supported by a report from the Eurasia Group in December. Its survey of 10 leading economies found they would reap $153bn of benefits in 2021-22 – and $466bn by 2025 – if they helped to raise the $38bn required by the Covid-19 Tools Accelerator (Act-A) programme, of which Covax is a part.
Failure to fill this funding gap would lead to core economic sectors in these countries losing out due to reduced demand from low- and lower-middle-income countries.
Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the directorgeneral of the World Health Organisation (WHO), commented that committing to support the work of Act-A was not only the right thing to do but also “the smart thing for all countries – socially, economically and politically”.
Equitable pricing
In addition to Covax, equitable pricing of vaccines is also a must. The revelation earlier this year that South Africa was paying more than twice as much as wealthier EU countries for the AstraZeneca vaccine is an outrage.
A string of revelations about vaccine prices has focused attention on a practice considered normal in the drug industry but often frowned on elsewhere: charging different prices to different customers for the same product. South Africa’s government found itself on the defensive after a senior health official revealed that 1.5m doses of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine purchased for use among health workers would cost $5.25 a dose, when EU countries were paying $2.16.
Higher income countries apparently get the discount because they have invested in the research and development, but somehow that doesn’t seem like a reasonable or equitable explanation – rather it seems immoral. Poorer African countries have to demand more transparency in vaccine negotiations and ramp up capacity for production in pharma in hubs such as Morocco and South Africa.
Too little too late?
In this context, the pressure on rich countries both economically and morally has seen them step up commitments substantially, but the question is whether this is too little too late, given that we are in a race against time against new variants and increasing economic and social devastation. In addition, the practicalities of vaccine rollouts when these commitments are made are incredibly complex.
Finally, when all these issues are overcome and everyone is immunised, the issue of widespread issuance of vaccine passports becomes another fly in the ointment and this will again depend on which variants the person has been immunised against and if there are reassurances about discrimination, fraud, privacy and new variants.
The best solution is clearly to have as many people immunised globally as soon as possible, so that all these issues can be worked out and standardised. The question is whether we have the will to do so. If so, the next few months will be critical.
Dr Desné Masie is an economist and chief strategist of IC Intelligence.
The revelation earlier this year that South Africa was paying more than twice as much as wealthier EU countries for the AstraZeneca vaccine is an outrage