Peace on peninsula rests on Moon Jae-in
President Moon Jae-in faces a huge task to keenly coordinate his foreign and security policies with the Donald Trump administration amid advancing nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.
How Moon forges his relationship with Trump will exert considerable influence in security affairs facing the Korean Peninsula, considering the impulsiveness and unpredictability of the North Korean regime as well as Trump himself.
Experts say Moon’s timely dialogue with President Trump is more important than ever to avoid Seoul’s further diplomatic isolation at a time when the United States and China have been moving to join hands to curb North Korean threats.
Since his inauguration, Trump has been fueling fears of Seoul’s isolation by skipping South Korea in his telephone talks for policy coordination following the North’s launch of a ballistic missile, April 5, only speaking to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Trump’s historically incorrect remark that Korea was once part of China, made after his summit with Xi last month, also sparked skepticism here over the U.S. president’s understanding of the Asian ally and commitment to the alliance.
Possible friction with Trump
The need for bilateral dialogue is especially growing as Moon has shown negative views throughout his campaigning on the U.S. push for the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery on South Korean soil and Trump’s abrupt calls on Seoul to pay $1 billion for the deployment.
It has been speculated that President Trump demanded South Korea pay for THAAD to use the issue in the upcoming negotiation to renew the two sides’ defense cost-sharing deal in order to make Seoul shoulder more of the burden. With the current deal expiring next year, the allies will begin discussions at the end of this year at the earliest.
Moon has also vowed to take back wartime operational control (OPCON) of South Korean forces from the U.S. at the earliest possible date and develop the nation’s own nuclear-powered submarines.
Both issues are highly likely to trigger conflict between the two nations, as the U.S. earlier agreed with South Korea to delay the OPCON transfer, originally scheduled for December 2015, until the 2020s. Washington also virtually controls South Korea’s uranium enrichment and nuclear fuel reprocessing, with critics raising the question of whether the U.S. would approve of Seoul’s uranium enrichment activity to operate a nuclear sub.
Cheong Seong-chang, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, said the Trump administration appears to be determined to rene- gotiate the THAAD issue, noting that if the South Korean government rejects the renegotiation, the U.S. is likely to respond very strongly, for example, by calling for terminating the free trade agreement between the two countries.
Mindful of the urgency of the issue, he urged the new government to push for a Seoul-Washington summit at the earliest possible date.
“Right after his inauguration, the new president needs to appoint a senior secretary for foreign affairs and national security, and send the secretary to the U.S. to push for an early summit,” he said. “Then, the government needs to discuss the THAAD issue.”
Cheong added that if the new government concludes that the THAAD deployment here was not a rational decision, it will also need to cancel the deployment. He cited the nation is estimated to suffer annual economic damage of 16 to 18 trillion won due to China’s economic retaliation against the deployment.
Chung Sung-yoon, a researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, also said, “The sooner the Seoul-Washington summit takes place, the better.”
He said South Korea should be included in the international community’s discussion on the North’s nuclear issues at the earliest possible date. “We must lose no more time at a time when the level of North Korean threats has become more serious than ever,” he said.
Others, on the other hand, say the new government had better take a cautious attitude in pushing for the first summit with President Trump after making elaborate preparations and plans.
They cited that Moon begins his presidential term right after the election without having a preparatory period with a presidential transition committee because the by-election took place this time following the removal of former President Park Geun-hye in March.
“Uncertainty exists in the Trump administration, and the situation on the peninsula is fluid as well,” said Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. “The new government will have to complete the appointment of ministers before pushing for the summit.”
For its part, the United States said it is looking forward to continuing “our close, constructive, deep cooperation” with the new South Korean administration.
State Department spokeswoman Katina Adams said Monday that the U.S. “continues to be a steadfast ally, friend, and partner” to South Korea, adding, “Our commitment to the defense of the ROK remains ironclad. The Republic of Korea is one of our closest allies and friends, and our partnership is based on shared values of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law.”
She added the alliance between the two countries will continue to be “a linchpin of regional stability and security,” vowing to meet all alliance commitments, especially with respect to defending against North Korea.