NK crisis — chances for diplomatic solution?
There is always talk of tit-for-tat when the North Korean nuclear and missile issues are discussed. Saber-rattling.
Is anybody ready to give diplomacy half a chance?
Those at the helm of affairs in the U.S. appear, increasingly, sure that some sort of military action will force the N.K. leadership to abandon their nuclear and missile programs. Fat chance!
Having invested scarce resources in nuclear weapons with five tests and an arsenal of at least 20 weapons coupled with an impressive array of missiles, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) will not back down. Further, the way Saddam Hussain and Moamar Gadhafi were eliminated sends a very loud message to dictators around the world — do not trust anyone. Nuclear weapons are DPRK’s life insurance — so they think.
North Korea is a typical case in the study of international relations. How to ensure the security of a small state surrounded by giants such as China, Russia, the U.S. and South Korea? Even in friendly times it cannot fully trust them. Its inherent weakness in the fields of agriculture, economics and military makes it a basket case.
So the DPRK developed a sizeable army for security and employment purposes (no other industry could absorb so many). It remains severely handicapped by low resources for upgrades and modernization, and remains unprepared for a war. The army of 1.3 million is at best like a local police force elsewhere.
Left with no option and without a nuclear umbrella from the U.S. as South Korea is, North Korea chose the nuclear path.
The DPRK is technically at war with the ROK since 1953. The cease-fire agreement between North Korea and the U.S. has not been transformed into a peace agreement.
The U.S. is in no hurry and wants to negotiate from a position of strength. The influential defense lobby is happily promoting newer and more accurate weapons with huge profits. Plus, a belligerent candidate wins easy votes during elections. North Korea as a good villain, suits all.
In the event of war, the big loser will be the Koreas. Nuclear, missile or conventional weapons, targets all of the peninsula. South Korea is developed and will face huge human and financial losses. North Korea will suffer as it cannot afford to rebuild. Japan relatively safe could still face some missile attacks that could be stopped or repulsed. What could be done? North Korea is wrapped in self-created fear and is unaware of a fair deal. In the last three generations, it has become convinced that the world under “U.S. leadership” is out to destroy the last socialist republic.
A friendless North thus relies only on its strength. The whole country is geared toward producing and protecting the asymmetric weapons and its delivery systems.
Who should take the lead in the future disarmament talks?
Major stakeholders are China, South Korea and Japan. The ROK appears to avoid taking bold initiatives as such could antagonize the U.S. China cannot afford to be seen as working against the U.N./U.S. sanctions as such because it will jeopardize its international standing. Yet a dis-balanced/destroyed North Korea means a serious headache for China. It cannot afford hordes of refugees or a neighborhood ruled by warlords. China moves slowly.
Therefore, both China and South Korea are constrained by external compulsions and their initiatives are being eroded. The North is creeping forward and could turn its threats into reality.
The rising political polarization in the South China Sea creates practical hurdles toward resolution of the crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Also, economic sanctions by China are creating problems for the ROK and neighboring countries.
North Korean diplomacy is fully cognizant to all sensitive issues and carefully adjusts its position. Being a small country and lacking economic muscle, it takes the ideological position on important issues. The defense of the fatherland remains prime. In any eventuality, the Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un will not compromise himself, the position of his elites and the security of his country. He is confident of the having second strike capability, guarded by handpicked military officers and scientists, that could target ROK’s civil areas and communication network by DPRK’s artillery, missile, submarine and acts of terror by sleeper cells.
Possible way out
The U.S. should offer a no-first strike guarantee to North Korea through credible guarantors. Then it can demand North Korea freeze its nuclear and missile program (not abolition). In return, President Trump could also seek North Korea’s guarantee of freezing the nuclear program. Any preconditions for nuclear talks is a non-starter.
An expanded group should be created for the disarmament talks comprising countries that are from the region and have a genuine interest in peace. The talks should be conducted by persons that are not hostile to the DPRK.
It will be a difficult and long process but a doable one. In the initial phase, focus on the softening of attitudes to pave the way for a future deal. Patience is the key that could lead to change of attitude.
The world should also be ready to extend substantial developmental support to the people of North Korea. The current level is not enough and has failed to create any impact on Korean society.
The author, a career diplomat, has served in China, Iran, the Netherlands, Morocco, Switzerland and North Korea. He speaks Chinese and focuses on issues related to China and Far East Asia. Currently, he is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy and Area Studies, Institute of Business Management, Karachi, Pakistan. Recently, he has contributed several articles on the political situation in Asia. He appears on TV shows as expert on foreign relations.