To defuse powder keg
Amid renewed tensions with North Korea, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Sept. 7 that the military option is still on the table, but it is not “inevitable.”
He also warned that if the U.S. has to use force, “it would be a very sad day for North Korea.” “I would prefer not going the route of the military, but it’s something, certainly, that could happen.... Our military has never been stronger.”
After his call to the Chinese president a day earlier, Trump said the military option was “not his first choice,” adding that “President Xi Jinping would like to do something. We will see whether or not he can do it.”
Trump appears willing to wait to see if non-military means could work out. Some members of Congress, who recently were briefed by Trump’s security advisers including the secretaries of defense and state, said the tone of the briefing was on the side of diplomacy rather than on military plans.
Trump’s improvised tweets and unscripted comments have often created confusion and concerns over U.S. policy. For example, his tweets that read “dialogue is not the answer” were understandable in the face of mounting tensions from North Korean provocation. But his scolding of the Moon government, “South Korea is finding as I told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!” was undiplomatic and unnecessary, as many critics pointed out.
His threat to terminate the U.S.-ROK free trade agreement was inappropriate at a time when a stronger alliance was needed to meet the challenges of the North Korean threat. The White House backed down after there was a torrent of criticism from American industries and Congress. South Korea will be spending billions of dollars to buy U.S. mili- tary hardware and that alone will help reduce U.S. trade deficits.
Pyongyang’s successful nuclear test on Sept. 3 triggered concerns and condemnation from all over the world, including the European Union (EU). The North’s sixth test came only a week after it launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan and landed in the North Pacific.
Pyongyang claimed it conducted “an ICBM-ready H-bomb test,” demonstrating “super-powerful EMP (electromagnetic pulse) capacity” to paralyze power grids and electronic systems. The test result was between 50 and 160 kilotons, or five to 10 times stronger than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima at the end of World War II.
Washington believes that North Korea has an ICBM capable of reaching the United States and that it has miniaturized a nuclear warhead to mount on it, but it is yet to prove its re-entry technology.
However, some experts believe the North has already resolved the re-entry hurdle.
If the North has completed its capacity to strike the U.S. with a nuclear-tipped missile, this may rule out U.S. military action. There is no guarantee that a U.S. strike will take out all North Korea’s nuclear weapons. The North could strike back against the continental U.S. with its surviving weapons. One comfort: Kim Jong-un is not insane and he is not “begging for war.” He is seeking for recognition.
At the United Nations Security Council, the U.S. and its allies are pressing hard for the toughest sanctions ever against the DPRK, which reportedly would include imposing an oil embargo, barring North Korean laborers from working overseas, stopping agricultural exports from the North, freezing Kim Jong-un’s financial assets and prohibiting him from traveling.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin told South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Vladivostok that Russia will not support a total cut-off of oil supplies to the North. Putin says sanctions and pressure alone will not work on the North. Despite China’s seeming willingness to take further steps to punish the North, it is unlikely to agree to suspend all its oil provision to the North, which could lead to the regime’s collapse. China is reacting bitterly against last week’s completion of the THAAD missile battery deployment in Korea, not an encouraging sign for China’s cooperation on Pyongyang.
The Moon government shifted its emphasis from dialogue to “maximum pressure possible” to deal with North Korean provocations. It will require a constructive change in North Korean behavior to defuse the powder keg that Pyongyang has brought to the Korean Peninsula. What’s your take?