Sanctions won’t stop NK provocations
New sanctions imposed by the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) against North Korea will not stop the Kim Jong-un regime from continuing military provocations, analysts said Tuesday.
They said the watered-down resolution will fail to choke off Pyongyang’s economic lifelines, raising the possibility of the North continuing larger provocative actions including the launching of more intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
However, they agreed the new resolution is still meaningful in that it targets oil supplies to the impoverished state for the first time, signaling that further tougher action is in store.
The council unanimously approved a resolution Monday, eight days after the North’s sixth nuclear test, representing a swift response by the international com- munity to Pyongyang’s latest provocation.
But its final version eliminated a total ban on oil supplies and an international asset freeze on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his sister, Yo-jong — measures included in the draft resolution circulated by the U.S. last week.
The revised resolution partially restricts the North’s imports of oil, capping imports at the level of the last 12 months and limiting the imports of refined petroleum products to 2 million barrels a year.
Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University in Seoul, said the latest sanctions were the result of a compromise between the United States, China and Russia.
“The U.S. may have tried to bring a maximum level of sanctions, while from China and Russia’s point of view, North Korea is still strategically important for them,” the professor said. “The U.S. may have accepted China and Russia’s position to some extent that things need to be resolved through dialogue.”
Additional provocations
Kim Yeoul-soo, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs, warned that there was a greater possibility for the North to conduct additional military provocations to protest the new sanctions.
“North Korea has never been quiet whenever the UNSC approves a new resolution,” he said during a radio appearance.
He said the North is likely to launch an ICBM at a normal angle for the first time in an effort to show the missile’s credibility, adding that the launching of new types of missiles such as the Hwasong-13 seems also possible.
The North launched Hwasong-14 ICBMs twice on July 4 and 28, and used high-angle trajectories to reduce their flight distance. But it keeps claiming that its ICBMs are capable of reaching the U.S. mainland if fired at a normal trajectory.
Kim said it is still meaningful as the resolution includes restrictions on oil supplies, which would reduce oil provided to the North by 30 percent.
“If the North pushes for additional provocations, the percentage of reduction could rise from 30 percent to 50 percent and then to 80 percent, and a complete ban on oil supplies will eventually be achieved,” he said.
Meanwhile, Ri Su-yong, the vice chairman of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea, said the North will continue to raise the level of its nuclear and missile tests as long as the United States and the international community pressures Pyongyang, according to Japanese wrestler-turned-parliamentarian Kanji “Antonio” Inoki.
Inoki, who visited the North last week, quoted Ri as saying that the North will keep trying to achieve its ultimate goal, Kyodo News reported. The ultimate goal is construed as developing an operational ICBM.
Early Monday, the North’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement, warning that it was “ready and willing” to respond with measures of its own and that Washington would pay a heavy price if the sanctions proposed by the U.S. were approved.
A series of countries are stepping up their punishment against North Korea following its sixth nuclear test, Sept. 3, ordering North Korean ambassadors to leave their countries or banning trade with the Kim Jong-un regime.
On Monday, the Peruvian government decided to expel North Korean Ambassador Kim Hak-chol because of Pyongyang’s series of violations of the U.N. Security Council resolutions on its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Peru’s foreign ministry said it declared Kim Hak-chol persona non grata and gave him five days to leave the nation.
The measure comes after Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto declared North Korean Ambassador Kim Hyong-gil persona non grata on Sept. 7 and granted him 72 hours to leave the country.
The Mexican foreign ministry said in a statement that the decision was meant to express its “absolute rejection” of North Korea’s nuclear tests.
This also followed a call from U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, who urged the South American countries to cut ties with North Korea during his recent visit to Chile.
Kim Hyong-gil lodged a fierce protest, calling his expulsion a “reckless measure.”
He claimed that his country’s nuclear program is “just an outcome from the hostile relationship between North Korea and the U.S. and has nothing to do with Mexico.”
On Sept. 8, the Philippines’ Foreign Minister Alan Peter Cayetano said Manila has suspended trade relations with Pyongyang.