President Moon in catch 22
President Moon Jae-in had enjoyed an approval rating of above 80 percent during his first 100 days in office, the second highest in recent memory.
Moon’s support rate plunged to 69 percent last Thursday after North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test, however. It is still about double that of his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, but the reformative yet folksy leader seems to be losing what he has earned in domestic politics due to poor diplomatic handling.
To be sure, there was little the South Korean president could do to keep North Korea’s young tyrant Kim Jong-un from rushing to make his impoverished country the second nuclear power in East Asia.
I am not talking about what he did, or did not do, before the nuclear test but after it. The first thing Moon did was to hasten the additional deployment of the U.S. anti-missile system called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), which he had long put off to measure its environmental effect and to win the approval of residents.
Moon said it was a “temporary” deployment. However, most Koreans who heard about the enormous U.S. pressure to introduce its missile shield and the far-reaching radar system here would not think it easy for Seoul to withdraw the deployment if it wants to later.
Since his campaign days, liberal President Moon tried to set himself apart from his conservative predecessors in North Korea policy, pursuing the two-track policy of pressure and dialogue. After last week’s nuclear test by the North, however, Moon said, “Now is not the time for talks.” He then took the lead in ratcheting up diplomatic sanctions against the rogue regime, through successive “telephone summits” with his Japanese, French and Australian counterparts. The most embarrassing moment for Moon came a week ago when Russian President Vladimir Putin flatly rejected the South Korean leader’s request to stop oil exports to the North, saying it would not have much impact while only raising tension further.
It’s as if President Moon is acting as the agent of President Trump. Small wonder Moon’s supporters are feeling a sense of betrayal. Nor are his conservative opponents praising Moon, criticizing his hurried deployment of THAAD as the typical case of “policy flip-flop,” which failed to satisfy the U.S. while antagonizing China further. The conservative camp, encouraged by Moon’s increasingly hard-line stance against the North, calls for reintroducing U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the South to realize the “balance of terror.”
Few can blame Moon, who’s been in office little more than five months, for the ongoing aggravation of the decades-old crisis. However, the South Korean leader deserves accusations by dealing with North Korea’s escalating — yet entirely expected — provocation with knee-jerk responses of stepped-up pressurization. He is also unduly conscious of the public’s sentiments, especially those of the conservative electorate. It is against this backdrop a remark by a governing party lawmaker drew Koreans’ attention.
“The President’s supporters criticizing him need to think twice,” wrote Rep. Kim Kyung-soo, a pro-Moon politician, on his Facebook account. Kim said President Moon is “crawling down between the legs of the U.S.” to secure the minimum leverage and not to be ignored in deciding the fate of the Koreas. I hope Kim is right. Former President Roh Moo-hyun braved fierce opposition from his supporters to dispatch troops to Iraq and start free trade talks with the U.S. to induce the George W. Bush administration into the six-party talks and attain the September 2005 agreement.
Likewise, the firm conviction in a peace initiative held by President Kim Dae-jung and his diplomatic team was behind the rapprochement between North Korea and the Bill Clinton administration, which almost drove the former U.S. leader into visiting the North in the late 1990s.
The incumbent U.S. president seems to be different from Clinton, and even from Bush, or any other former U.S. leader. It sometimes seems as if gripping the mind of the real estate tycoon-turned-president are economic interests. He is trying to discard the nuclear deal with Iran, although the Tehran government is faithfully fulfilling the agreement, and pulled together anti-Iranian states in the Middle East around Saudi Arabia to sell several billions of dollars of U.S. weapons to the latter.
Similarly, Trump seems to be bent on maximizing the U.S. trade gains by forcing China to solve the North Korean crisis. The U.S. president is also hinting at bringing tactical nuclear weapons back to South Korea and even threatening to allow Tokyo and Seoul to arm themselves with nuclear weapons, throwing away the time-honored U.S. policy of nonproliferation.
Nothing is more delusional than countering nuclear attacks with the same weapons. By nature, nuclear weapons are for restraining war, not initiating it, unless one or both sides decide to annihilate themselves. Tactical nuclear weapons do not reduce but increase the possibility of mutually disastrous war, if accidentally, particularly if the counterpart is as unpredictable as North Korea. If Trump means it and has his way, no Northeast Asian countries will be without nuclear weapons in a decade or so.
All this shows why President Moon should return to his policy of a peaceful negotiated settlement of the nuclear crisis. Currently few appear to be on Moon’s side — the U.S., North Korea and even a majority of his people seems to be against the South Korean leader.
Moon has only to heed the words of two persons in this regard. Robert Gallucci, the chief U.S. negotiator who pulled off the 1994 Geneva Agreement, recently said, “In the current crisis, the only hope is President Moon Jae-in.” Lee Jung-mi, head of the opposition Justice Party, said at the National Assembly last week, “President Moon, if you feel you lack in strength, ask your people for help. We are ready to assist you.”