‘Trump not afraid of chaos’
Ex-US vice president urges China to put greater pressure on North Korea
Former United States Vice President Dan Quayle says it is important for South Korea to understand that U.S. President Donald Trump “does not mind chaos and thinks it is his friend.”
The remark, made by a man close to incumbent U.S. Vice President Mike Pence, has extra significance given that Trump is expected to deliver messages regarding North Korea during his two-day state visit to the South on Nov. 7.
In a recent interview with The Korea Times, Quayle, who is chairman of global investment firm Cerberus Capital Management, said Trump was “very different” from other U.S. presidents.
“He likes results and likes to do things quickly and win,” Quayle said at the Conrad Hotel in Yeouido, Seoul.
Quayle said Trump would be in South Korea for a short time, but South Koreans would “get a feel for who he is.”
Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un have been trading bellicose rhetoric in recent months, following the North’s pursuit of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and nuclear programs.
Most recently, Trump declined to confirm whether he would visit the demilitarized zone, which separates the two Koreas, during his trip, while telling reporters, “You’ll be surprised.”
The remark was interpreted as referring to U.S. pressure against China and North Korea.
Quayle warned that the tension in the region was “different” because the North was trying to develop a nuclear ICBM that could hit the U.S.
He agreed that the recent victory of Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition in Japan’s snap election showed that public fear gave the ruling bloc a much-needed boost.
Following the North’s nuclear brinkmanship, South Korea is also divided on whether to call for U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to be redeployed on its soil.
“So we are going to have to come to grips with the situation, either we are going to get a denuclearized Korean Peninsula or you are going to have nuclear weapons,” Quayle said. “Clearly, the latter is not what we want and the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is the goal and objective we should all have.”
He stressed that it was important that China join efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, because Beijing has the most influence over the situation and the issue was “something happening in its backyard.
“If they don’t, you know what’s going to happen? Pyongyang is going to have nuclear weapons, possibly South Korea will follow and then you will have a proliferation of nuclear weapons in Northeast Asia. Does China want that? I wouldn’t think so.”
Asked about President Trump’s message while he is here, Quayle said his message will be on how to achieve peace and stability, how to live together, and how to deal with North Korea.
“And I think he will be very positive about economic and political ties between the U.S. and Korea. He will give a recommitment to the alliance we’ve had with Korea for many, many years,” he said.
Trump’s visit to Seoul is also expected to have a significant impact on the ongoing talks over the free trade agreement between Korea and the U.S.
The talks have not been going smoothly, because the Trump administration wants the terms renegotiated — as he pledged during his campaign — claiming the U.S. has been suffering losses under the deal.
“President Trump is a negotiator,” Quayle said. “He likes to take a hard stand to start, but he is always open to dialogue. And I think you will have some dialogue when he’s here.”
Asked for his view on renegotiating the trade deal, Quayle said, “All trade agreements are going to be discussed. That’s where President Trump is looking at everything, but I think you will find the end result will be very positive and fair.”
Cerberus Global Investments Chairman Dan Quayle recently visited Korea and gave a speech on geopolitical challenges during a conference in Seoul.
In an interview with The Korea Times, Quayle, who was also the 44th vice president of the United States from 1989 to 1993, shared his views and opinions about the geopolitical situation in Northeast Asia, as well as his assessment of the Korea-U.S. relations and the Korean economy.
This is an excerpt of the interview held Oct. 25 at the Conrad Hotel in Yeouido, Seoul.
Q This must not be your first visit to South Korea.
A I have come here on and off for 25 years. Probably been here around 15 times.
Q Have you seen President Moon Jae-in and what was he like? A Yes I was invited to a lunch of his in New York a couple of weeks ago [Moon visited the U.S. in September for the United Nations General Assembly]. I sat next to him at the lunch and had a very good conversation with him. He has a big challenge but I think he will do a good job because he’s got a lot of enthusiasm.
From what I understand, he is fairly popular now among the (South Korean) people, which is good because if he has popularity he can get things accomplished. We have the huge challenge with the folks to the North of us — North Korea. I know that President Donald Trump is looking very forward to his trip to South Korea. I spoke with Vice President Mike Pence before I left and he said Trump is very much looking forward to the trip here.
Q The purpose of your visit is to make a speech on the global economic situation and its lingering risks. Could you explain the main theme of your speech?
A There are a couple of things. I looked at the global economic situation and I found it to be and I believe the consensus finds it to be very stable: modest growth, low inflation and good opportunities for investors like ourselves.
And then I talked a lot about some of the geopolitical challenges that we have. The three main ones are North Korea, China and Iran.
And before that I spoke about understanding our new President Trump. In fact, he is the first American president elected who has had no public service, no political background or been in a military. Outside of that every other president had one of those two characteristics in getting elected, but he didn’t, meaning he is very different.
He likes to do things quickly, he likes results, and he likes to win. He doesn’t mind the chaos and he thinks that chaos is his friend.
South Korean people will get a little glimpse of him because he’s only going to be here for short period of time, but I think they’ll get a feel for who he is.
Q The North Korea issue has been recent buzzwords globally, but for some South Koreans the impact of the threat does not seem as imminent as those outside of the region feel because they are very much accustomed to it.
A I think the North Korea situation is different this time. And the reason it’s different is because they are moving toward having an intercontinental ballistic missile with a nuclear capability which can hit the U.S. They had tested missiles that have been flying over Japan. Kim Jong-un has been very aggressive trying to develop his nuclear capability, and that has changed. And that’s why people need to realize the situation is different.
And we are going to have to come to grips with it, either we are going to get a denuclearized Korean Peninsula or you are going to have nuclear weapons. Clearly, the latter is not what we want. We want to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and I think most South Koreans want that. The denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is the goal and objective we should all have.
Q So what do we have to do to alleviate tensions in the region? A There are two things now the North wants. Kim Jong-un wants to have nuclear weapons and survive.
If he sees the survival ability is a question, then maybe he will be willing to come to the table to have discussions on how you can have a freeze and move toward denuclearization.
But I don’t think that he is there yet, hopefully he will be. The country that’s going to have the most influence is China. We’re just getting through the party congress, and President Xi Jinping has come out very strong and his party is stronger. He has more authority than he had before and maybe he will be a lot freer to deal with Pyongyang than he has in the past. I hope so, because I think it’s in China’s interest to have a denuclearized peninsula. Because if it’s not, you know what’s going to happen? Pyongyang’s going to have nuclear weapons, possibly South Korea will have nuclear weapons and you will have a proliferation of nuclear weapons in Northeast Asia. Does China want that? I wouldn’t think so.
So, China would like to have less of a presence of the U.S. here and maybe there is some room to negotiate to start how do we get a denuclearized Korean Peninsula and China needs to buy in and really begin to put some pressure to make this happen.
Q Can the stronger power of Xi make this happen?
A I think Xi clearly is going to have more strength. Therefore he will be dealing from a position of extraordinary strength. And when you have that, I hope he’s willing to spend a little bit of his political capital to resolve something that is in his backyard. And it’s in China’s interest to get this resolved. Because if they don’t, who knows what’s going to happen.
Q And the people of Japan have recently shown their feelings on North Korea through a snap election.
A Well the interesting thing is that Abe now has two-thirds majority in the upper house. And he has to have a two-thirds of majority to be able to have any kind of amendment to its Constitution.
The way I understand it is when it passes both houses then it goes to a national referendum. I don’t know what that referendum would be — probably its self-defense forces can also have offensive weapons would be my guess.
But I don’t know, could be something like that. But Abe has been strengthened and I think you are absolutely right that Kim Jong-un is strengthening Abe’s hand because Japanese people feel frightened and Abe is a very strong leader. He called a snap election and he was very successful where other people have called, like Great Britain, a snap election it didn’t work so well. It worked well for Abe.
Q In such a time, relations between South Korea and the U.S. will be very important. Could you make an assessment of their relations after the Trump administration?
A Many Koreans live in the U.S., many Americans live in Korea. From people to people, associations are very, very strong.
And then we have the alliance. We have about 20,000 troops here and committed to Korea. The alliance is strong, durable and stable and it’s not going to be broken. When President Trump comes here in two weeks, I think you will find him speaking very positive about the relationship, about the people, and he will probably be very realistic about the challenges that North Korea presents. And as I said, it is different today and I think people need to understand that is different today. That’s why people are raising this issue. We’ve got to try to resolve it, hopefully China will come to the table and realize that is in their interest to have a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. Q How about economic relations? A Economic ties and the trade agreement are being discussed, but I think you will find our economic activities between the two nations will continue very strong and very interconnected. We have a lot of Korean businesses coming to the U.S and they all have good products, cars and electronics.
Q There are ongoing negotiations on the Korea-US free trade agreement.
A President Trump is a negotiator. He likes to take hard in starting position, but he is always open to dialogue. And I think you will have some dialogue when he’s here.
I think he will be followed up by Robert Lighthizer, who is the trade representative. He used to work in the U.S. Senate and I know him very well, he’s very reasonable, very smart, and will be very open to discussion and how we can have trade agreement that is good for both countries.
Q The reason why the negotiations are not going very smoothly is Korea is claiming the deal has been mutually beneficial, while the U.S. is saying it has been suffering losses. Do you think the FTA should be re-discussed?
A I think all the trade agreements are going to be discussed. That’s where President Trump is looking at everything, but I think you will find the end result to be very positive and fair.
Q Can you give us a glimpse on President Trump’s message when he is here?
A I think his message will be on how do we achieve peace and stability, how do we live together, how do we deal with North Korea. And I think he will be very positive about economic and political ties between the U.S. and Korea. He will give a recommitment to the alliance we’ve had with Korea for many, many years. And I think he will leave here and you will say this is a good result, a good visit by the American president and he recommitted to the relationship we had for many years.
Q Cerberus has been a giant in the field of global investment and having several relations with Korea. Could you evaluate Korea as a destination for alternative investing?
A We’ve been significant investors in Korea in the past. And from the late 1990s and early 2000s we had very robust services here. We had a loan investment in Korea first for quite a period of time and we always look for big investments.
We think that the Korean economy is solid, stable and has a good rule of law and democracy. Everything is very positive about Korea, so if you find some opportunity, we have no problem about investing in Korea. We think it’s a good strong economy we obviously are always looking for a good opportunity.
Q Can you pick one strength and one weakness that the Korean economy has?
A I think the strength is that it’s a free market society and understands the capital market.
I don’t think there is any real downside for getting foreign investment. I think maybe more could be done. I think maybe just to be more aggressive in encouraging foreign investment to come to Korea. That’s always very helpful. The more aggressive that your businesses, your political leaders can be saying come to Korea and get some good opportunities. And if you manage your assets well and know what you are doing, you are going to be quite successful here so come to Korea.
Q How about leaders in businesses? Can you give some advice to CEOs here? A Leaders in businesses and the political world have to promote the opportunities in Korea. I think if you just talk about it and show that Korea is a very vibrant economy that if we take businesses there, there are M&A opportunities. I don’t view distressed opportunities that you hear right now. But you have to figure out how to create more jobs for younger people.