Rough road ahead for China ties
Seoul and Beijing face tough security and economic challenges ahead despite their agreement Tuesday to normalize their ties frayed by the deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here, analysts said Wednesday.
Most of all, China is adamantly against the existence and reinforcement of the U.S. missile defense system in the region, concerned about the Seoul-Washington-Tokyo military alliance.
This may create a dilemma for Korea. The country may be pressured to choose between the U.S. and China whenever there are conflicts of interest between the two superpow- ers especially over regional security, according to the analysts.
A major concern for the administration of President Moon Jae-in is that its attempt to shift away from the country’s excessively U.S.-oriented diplomacy could be misunderstood by Washington.
“It’s regrettable that our government complied too easily with China’s opposition toward U.S. military influence in the region,” said Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. “I’m afraid this may lead to another diplomatic conflict with China if the U.S. tries to increase the number of THAAD batteries here.”
Kim claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has begun his second 10-year term, will be willing to take on a zero-sum game with U.S. President Donald Trump to better consolidate his leadership.
“It should be understood that China decided to reconcile with Korea as part of efforts to hold the U.S. in check. And Beijing will not simply sit and watch if Seoul violates the agreement,” he added.
Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University, voiced a similar view, saying, “China may raise questions over the latest U.S. commitment on extended deterrence for Korea as seen from the 49th Security Consultative Meeting.”
In a joint communique announced after the SCM in Seoul last week, U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis “reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to provide extended deterrence for the ROK using the full range of military capabilities.”
“China may deem the American support on missile capabilities as Korea’s move to join the U.S. missile defense system,” Park said.
The experts said Korea should come up with preparatory measures to avoid being affected by games between Washington and Beijing, and to deal with possible economic retaliation in the future.
Regarding security, they suggested improving the inter-Korean relations while bolstering ties with Russia.
“By doing so, the influence on the Korean Peninsula by the regional powers can be diversified,” Kim said.
Park said more Korean companies are beginning to shift away from China-oriented business and are diversifying their markets to other regions including Southeast Asia.