N. Korean ICBMs could be on table
The United States may demand the dismantling of North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in exchange for corresponding measures, according to analysts, Wednesday.
This could be discussed as a viable option for their next summit to facilitate North Korea’s denuclearization process and build mutual trust, as the U.S. appears to have lowered the threshold of a previous agreement between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
This speculation is abounding after U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo last week mentioned Washington and Pyongyang are discussing means to “decrease risk for the American people.”
President Moon Jae-in in his New Year press conference mentioned North Korea dismantling its ICBMs could be a means to begin the process. Based on this, speculation had grown that the U.S. may agree on beginning with ICBMs, which are claimed to be able to reach the U.S. mainland.
Rep. Park Jie-won of the minor liberal Party for Democracy and Peace on Tuesday said Pyongyang and Washington will discuss dismantling the ICBMs at an upcoming high-level meeting, and said this is what the U.S. wants. Park is known to have close sources on North Korea.
“Rather than exchanging declarations of the scope of North Korea’s nuclear program versus ending the war, the countries are likely to end up with a set of limited steps and corresponding actions as a way of getting the process up and running,” Scott Snyder, director of the U.S.-Korea policy program at the Council on Foreign Relations, said via email.
Snyder stressed it is critical that “North Korea’s set of actions credibly signify its seriousness of purpose to realize the goal of complete denuclearization.”
He added, “The U.S. could take corresponding actions indicating its seriousness of intent to develop a normal relationship with North Korea,” he said, but declined to specify.”
Shin Beom-chul, a senior fellow at Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, “Options on the table may be North Korea freezing its nuclear activities, dismantling its ICBMs and dismantling and verifying its Yongbyon nuclear facility, and the U.S. halting joint military drills with South Korea or establishing a U.S. contact office in Pyongyang.”
While North Korea has continued to call for resuming operation of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and tours to Mount Geumgang, United Nations Security Council sanctions will likely not be alleviated for the time being until North Korea takes denuclearization measures. Halting military exercises conducted by Seoul and Washington has been another of its calls.
Meanwhile, establishing a U.S. contact office in Pyongyang may be a symbolic move that Washington may offer for the North’s denuclearization steps this time. This is a follow-up of the agreements reached between Kim and Trump at their first summit in June last year. The first of the agreements is to “establish new” bilateral relations.
The first step ahead of formally establishing diplomatic ties could be to set up a contact office in the North. This is seen as a necessary step also to prepare for inspectors from the U.S. coming to the North for denuclearization verification purposes at a later time.
While the composition of the deal will likely be discussed between North Korean official Kim Yong-chol and Pompeo at a high-level meeting in Washington this week, it is expected to start with symbolic and practical steps to build trust and ensure the process moves forward.
Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said, “A step-by-step procedure appears to be necessary because the countries need to establish trust.”