Afghan gamble
The U.S. administration has announced that it will halve the number of troops inside Afghanistan. At the moment, there are around 14,000 troops, which means that around 7,000 troops will be remaining after 2019.
Regional players, particularly Iran, Pakistan and Russia, are keenly desirous of bringing peace in Afghanistan to reduce several of the issues in their lands. Peace in Afghanistan is the same old story but badly needed. This could end the 17-year-long conflict. Whether this will work and bring peace inside Afghanistan is a crucial question.
U.S. special representative on Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, met the Taliban and discussed issues pertaining to its involvement inside Afghanistan in the month of December.
The reduction of American troops and a ceasefire in Afghanistan were the two important measures that were discussed. In return, an Afghan delegation met with the Iranian side. Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, visited Kabul and held negotiations with the Taliban.
A large number of refugees are living inside Pakistan and it is keen to see the return of these refugees. For Pakistan, this would be a great starting point.
The U.S. side is worrying about what will fill the vacuum left by its troops, perhaps it will be filled by Iran. The peace talks may bring unease to India as it sees Pakistan in a comfortable situation once all the refugees go back to Afghanistan.
India sees the post-Taliban situation as not good for Kashmir. On one side, Kashmiries are satisfied with the situation in Afghanistan, and on the other side there will be many voices to “free Kashmir from India’s tyranny.”
For India, to see both freedoms at its door is not possible. Therefore, India will continue to see an Afghanistan under perpetual crisis as in its interests.
It is in India’s foremost interest that it should support a regime inside Afghanistan that is in perpetual conflict with Pakistan. For these reasons, India will continue to oppose Pakistan and Russia in Afghanistan.
As for China, it is not in the interest of it to propose any role in that country. Again 9/11 provided an opportunity to India to increase its influence in Afghanistan, particularly after the Bonn Agreement in 2001.
Since then, India has been follow- ing a policy of high-level engagement with Afghanistan. From development of infrastructure to providing hard military assistance, Indian policy toward Afghanistan is a major challenge to Pakistan. As many other countries see Afghanistan from their points of view, India naturally finds its own inroads in Afghanistan.
India simply cannot stop its Central Asian strategy. Therefore, India must continue its drive for Afghanistan. Without Afghanistan, what role is there for India in Central Asia? The Iranian port in Chahbahar is also meant for Afghanistan and Central Asia. India must be active all over Afghan-related projects.
India will continue with its mercantile interest in Afghanistan. Therefore, having a pro-India regime in Afghanistan is of vital interest to India. Pakistan faces a much more dangerous enemy inside Afghanistan and this situation could be reversed many times. Pakistan’s efforts with Iran to bring peace in Afghanistan would not be productive.
India has seen the worst shape of the Taliban government (1996-2001) in Kabul and will not want to repeat that mistake again. The collaboration work with the United States is quite hard. It is part of U.S. policy in Afghanistan to give value to India’s work. Pakistan faces a dilemma. Pakistan never appreciates India’s role in Afghanistan. Pakistan sees that all ills are coming from its policy.
India has been making efforts to destabilize Balochistan and marginalize Pakistan. India’s efforts are continuing. On the other side, India has been making efforts to decrease the importance of Gwadar Port — a Chinese multi-billion assisted project on which the backbone of the entire economy of Pakistan will depend.
Pakistani decision-makers should lay down their focus on building all large and medium size projects in Afghanistan. It should use its political leverage inside in Afghanistan. Pakistan must be actively participating in all efforts relating to anti-narcotic activities in Afghanistan responsible for over 90 percent of world narcotic activities.
Public-to-public contact and seminars and conferences should be organized to show a link between Pakistan and Afghani experts. Pakistani teachers and experts should be deployed in Afghanistan.
Pakistan must build its strategic communication in Afghanistan to increase its visibility. The media should play an effective role in diffusing tension and creating understanding with each other. This is a Pakistani strategy inside Afghanistan to achieve its ends.