From N. Korea with love
Last year was special when it came to North Korea. After more than a decade, finally there was a willingness and opportunity to communicate between Pyongyang, Washington and Seoul.
President Moon Jae-in even received a letter at the end of year from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, wishing and hoping to meet again in the near future. Everything looked promising and reassuring ... until the New Year message from Kim.
Firstly, I was surprised to see him sitting in some fancy hall or office wearing a suit and tie. Since 2011, young Kim has been wearing an “old-fashioned” uniform matched with triple XL wide trousers, broadcasting from an undisclosed location or the Supreme People’s Assembly. And now this elegant look in cozy surroundings? Wow, the best PR stunt in a decade!
I presume that the purpose of this was to show the world that Kim is moving from tyranny to strong leadership and he is all about business. At least on video. What was more important was the message.
Basically, the North will start the denuclearization process if the U.S. will remove the sanctions and vice versa. However, so far no one wants to be first to do a favor and that’s the biggest problem. It can go on and on for another year.
Trump will claim that he is the first president who has engaged with North Korea, but they don’t want to collaborate. North Korea will say that the U.S. is not keen on cooperation and that they feel threatened. Thus, they cannot remove their nuclear assets.
There are two questions which should be answered. Firstly, how much we can trust North Korea? Secondly, how critical is the situation in Pyongyang and how desperate is the regime to have sanctions removed?
Regarding the first part, time has shown that it is very little. Over the years, the North has always found a cause to change their policies. Even a tiny reason might cause North Korea to walk off from negotiations and turn back on the U.S. But there is always a first time for everything. In my opinion, Trump is very skeptical about the North’s reliability and simply doesn’t trust the regime. Rightly so.
When it comes to the North Korean economy, it’s clear that it is in serious trouble, thus the recent visit to Beijing.
China has its own problems with “trade wars,” but it seems like it is willing to provide help just as it always does. It is clear that Kim is sending signals to Washington, that he can still rely on an old ally and simply change his mind about denuclearization anytime.
The U.S. position is rock solid, but it also means that there has been very little progress since the Singapore summit regarding denuclearization. It’s like a chess game where both parties are waiting for the opponent to move.
Furthermore, lifting sanctions first means that there is a trust toward Pyongyang, but it also implies a weaker position of the U.S.
Imagine, if suddenly, the North resumes the nuclear program and missile testing; this will put Trump’s administration under enormous pressure. The world will consider this a diplomatic failure. There is no simple solution or quick fix, but one of them has to sacrifice a bit.
As always, the situation is problematic and Kim has to try a new approach to get those sanctions off.
Valentine’s Day is coming soon and it seems like there is unlimited and unconditional love between China and North Korea. But how does the U.S. feel about it? Perhaps heartbroken.