Wang Yi’s visit to Pyongyang
South Korean media outlets loudly speculated whether Chinese State Councilor Wang Yi’s visit to North Korea this week would reinvigorate the stalled nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang. This is quite a common yet misplaced media angle in South Korea.
Just like any other country, China carries out its diplomacy for its national interest. China’s foreign ministry is not a philanthropic agency working for somebody else’s interest. Yet somehow, South Korean media often project their own wishes on the agency of another (usually more powerful) country’s diplomatic moves.
In another example, when in 2013, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his American counterpart Barak Obama met in the Sunnylands estate in California, the South Korean media penned many hopeful commentaries, as if the two world’s most powerful leaders were there to mainly discuss how to resolve the North Korea issue.
This tendency may be an understandable journalistic effort to highlight some aspects of international politics that are relevant to “the Korean angle.” However, it may also be a reflection of the psychological trait of Koreans whose fate in history has often been decided by powerful neighbors, not themselves.
In other words, it reflects a mentality of Koreans who feel they have little control over their geopolitical fate on the Korean Peninsula, a tinderbox in Northeast Asia where powerful countries’ interests converge and collide. Therefore, they look to other countries and project their wishes in the agency of others, hoping the powerful countries will act in a way that will secure and preserve Korea’s interest.
From the Chinese context, however, the intended purpose of Wang Yi’s visit may differ. Chinese scholars and analysts I talked to, broadly point out that the visit was to bolster Chinese ties with North Korea against the backdrop of the intensifying U.S.-China trade war. In other words, the Chinese see the visit as being about the United Sates, not South Korea. They also state that China was trying to strengthen its supportive ties with North Korea to leverage Beijing’s dealings with the United States. In other words, China is using the “North Korea card” against the United States.
This interpretation also better fits with the on-ground reality on the part of North Korea, which has been dealing with the U.S. through protracted on-and-off nuclear negotiations.
When North Korea’s negotiations with Washington to lift economic sanctions are not yielding any breakthrough, the appearance of China standing by North Korea could bolster North Korea’s negotiation leverage.
In addition, it is reasonable to expect that Wang and his North Korean counterpart Ri Yong-ho discussed economic affairs and some aspects of preparing for the upcoming 70th anniversary celebration of the establishing of diplomatic ties that will come next month.
From a larger geopolitical context, China’s strengthening relations with North Korea could be seen as part of Xi’s focus on “neighborhood diplomacy” (zhoubian waijiao) to network with likeminded countries so that China could better cope with the United States and its allies in the region, which Beijing sees as Washington’s primary toolkit to box in China. In that context, China has either strengthened or repaired ties with countries such as Russia, India, Japan and the ASEAN bloc.
Last year, China repaired ties with North Korea by holding a summit after several years of an estranged relationship. What is notable is that both China and North Korea have since been maintaining the upbeat momentum through a series of high-level exchanges, including Wang’s visit this time.
In contrast, Washington’s relationship with North Korea, which ushered in a new amicable era, thanks to the Singapore Summit in May last year, has since been a bumpy ride. One is more strategic than the other.
In the past, China had a “twotrack” approach, separating the North Korea issue from the trade war with the U.S. But as the severity of the trade war deepens and as the both sides increasingly see it as part of a bigger competition for global leadership, China has begun to treat the North Korean issue from the perspective of the overall U.S.-China rivalry.
Taken together, the current circumstances of deepening structural rivalry will drive the United States and China to treat the North Korea issue from the perspective of their regional strategic gains or losses, in their geopolitical chess game.
In other words, the North Korea issue is becoming a sub-structure within the bigger U.S.-China competition structure. Inevitably, this eerily reminds one of the Cold War. Looking ahead, expect to see very big celebrations next month by China and North Korea to highlight their “friendship.”