GSOMIA — ‘Bargaining chip’ in NK talks
Although Cheong Wa Dae has declined to specify the topics of the upcoming Korea-U.S. summit, it is largely expected Korea’s withdrawal from a military intelligence sharing pact with Japan following a bilateral dispute on trade and history could be on the discussion table.
Moon is likely to use his summit with Trump during the Sept. 22-26 visit to New York for the United Nations General Assembly as an occasion to assuage rising concerns over the Korea-U.S. alliance following Korea’s abrupt decision last month to cancel renewal of the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA). Cheong Wa Dae had said it goes against “national interest” to renew the pact with Japan.
The GSOMIA withdrawal has triggered concerns from Washington, which initiated the signing of the pact in 2016 to advance trilateral security cooperation in the region against North Korea and China.
Given the high level of disappointment from Washington since the GSOMIA decision, it cannot be ruled out that U.S. President Donald Trump could request his South Korean counterpart to reconsider the decision, according to some experts.
Speculation is also rising that in exchange, Moon could seek to achieve U.S. consensus on restarting some inter-Korean projects with Pyongyang, such as Mount Geumgang tourism or the reopening of the inter-Korean industrial complex in the North Korean city of Gaeseong, by underlining the need to ease sanctions against North Korea.
Moon has also highlighted the need to establish a “peace economy” with North Korea for not just co-prosperity of the two Koreas, but also as a way to counter the economic conflict with Japan.
Kim Jong-un has shown enthusiasm for the two projects, saying he was ready to resume them “unconditionally” during his New Year message.
With no visible headway in inter-Korean relations since his summit last Sept. 19 with Kim in Pyongyang, Moon has also underlined the necessity to revive the inter-Korean economic projects to bring the two Koreas closer.
But some experts have warned that Moon may not get the desired outcome under the possible scenario of reconsidering GSOMIA in exchange for the easing of sanctions on North Korea.
“The trade-off scenario sounds plausible, as the resumption of tourism to the North’s Mount Geumgang does not violate fundamentals of the international sanctions against the North,” said Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at Korea National Diplomatic Academy. “This does not come as a huge burden to the U.S. But the thing is the North is unlikely to accept the proposal, as it wants a lifting of United Nations sanctions with a view to receiving support from China.”
Although some experts have argued against using GSOMIA as a tactic to get the U.S. involved in the Korea-Japan dispute, the U.S has been more vocal about the issue following Korea’s decision not to renew the pact, which expires on Nov. 23.
“Secretary Pompeo emphasized the need for constructive dialogue between Japan and the Republic of Korea and for cooperating with partners and allies to ensure a free and open future for the Indo-Pacific,” U.S. State Department spokesperson Morgan Ortagus said in a statement released Monday.