Changing Seoul-Beijing ties
There are some qualitative differences in the way China treats South Korea since Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s visit to Pyongyang. The visit to Pyongyang, which took place in late June, itself was a significant event in Sino-North Korea ties; China signified to stake up its geopolitical dividends in the North Korean nuclear matter. Interestingly, without any public announcement, China’s dealings with South Korea have since also shown nuanced shifts.
First, the Chinese side did not highlight the THAAD issue in various academic and policy meetings between Seoul and Beijing. The majority of Chinese participants also underscored that the discord has yet to be fully resolved.
The Chinese side expressed concerns over the possibility of additional THAAD battery deployment by Washington to U.S. military bases in South Korea. China’s new 2019 Defense White Paper included a clause about THAAD. “The U.S. has severely destroyed the strategic balance of the region by deploying the THAAD system in South Korea, and inflicted severe damage on the strategic security interests of the regional countries,” it said.
To sum, THAAD is still an important issue for China, but China wants to improve ties with South Korea and it doesn’t want THAAD to become an obstacle.
Second, China ratcheted up publicly recognizing and praising President Moon Jae-in’s mediating role in the nuclear talks between the United States and North Korea. It is notable that the Chinese still praised Moon for his steadfast peace outreach effort in transforming the Korean Peninsula situation even during the recent negotiation impasse.
Chinese note that ‘With Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea, relations between North Korea and China have entered a new high period. They also expressed hope that the ties between Seoul and Beijing could be also further strengthened.
Moreover, Chinese has begun to point out a possible room for trilateral cooperation for establishing peace and economic prosperity on the Korean Peninsula, among Beijing, Seoul and Pyongyang. For that purpose, Chinese, once again, emphasizes that it is necessary for China and South Korea to make new efforts to strengthen bilateral ties.
If these are Chinese “charm offensive” to South Korea, they also have warnings to offer as well. The most important is that South Korea shouldn’t join any U.S. initiative, whether military or economic, that aims to contain China. South Korea shouldn’t cow in to take part in the U.S.-led Indo-Pacific Strategy.
Chinese warn that whether or not South Korea can avoid U.S. interference and intervention on the matter is bound to pose a significant challenge to the Seoul-Beijing relations.
Specifically, the Chinese warn that if South Korea takes the U.S. side in the dispute over the South China Sea, for instance, it will pose a more serious challenge than the THAAD issue between Seoul and Beijing.
According to the Chinese, North Korea and the U.S. alone cannot represent the positions of the countries involved in North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. Many issues cannot be solved by just bilateral talks between the U.S. and North Korea. That’s why strategic cooperation between South Korea and China is important, they underscored.
“There is room for China and South Korea to form a joint posture and coordinate actions regarding the North Korean nuclear affair,” the Chinese say. China’s suggestions in this regard are: South Korea can persuade the U.S. to contribute to easing sanctions on North Korea, while China can persuade North Korea to make progress in denuclearization.
The Chinese also emphasize that both China and South Korea have a convergence of basic interests on the Korean Peninsula in terms of both of them not wanting an outbreak of war, and both wanting denuclearization and a peaceful manner to achieve the goal.
While China also readily acknowledge that the U.S. is still the most influential player in North Korea’s denuclearization negotiations, yet China doubts whether Washington is doing all it can to truly realize the goal. “The U.S. wants to maintain a certain level of tension on the Korean Peninsula so that it can rationalize the presence of U.S. forces in Northeast Asia,” the Chinese argue.
Overall, in the aftermath of Xi’s visit to Pyongyang, China has been also making charm-offensive inroads to Seoul. The moves are subtle but palpable.
They emit a certain underlying strategic goal. That is, they appear to be more about China’s checking the U.S. influence on the Korean Peninsula, than the Korean Peninsula itself.