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Trump’s ‘new method’ raises cautious optimism
The United States and North Korea are expected to resume their working-level nuclear talks soon — probably late this month — as both sides are sending out positive signals for negotiations. One such signal is U.S. President Donald Trump’s remarks suggesting a “new method” of breaking the deadlock in the denuclearization talks.
Trump made the remarks Sept. 18 after he sacked hawkish national security adviser, John Bolton. He criticized Bolton for advocating the “Libyan model” in talks with Pyongyang. He said that Bolton’s mention of the Libyan model set back Washington’s North Korea diplomacy “very badly” and that a “new method would be very good.”
Yet it is still unclear what Trump really meant by a new method. He has yet to go into details about it. Trump’s ousting of Bolton and his mention of a new method seem to signal a change, if not a big one, in the U.S. strategy of keeping maximum pressure on the North until it abandons its nuclear arsenal completely and verifiably.
Some pundits predict Trump may take a more flexible attitude toward the North’s demand for step-by-step and simultaneous denuclearization which is designed to get U.S. rewards for every step it takes in scrapping its nuclear program. Such an attitude could accommodate the demand to a certain — though not complete — degree to revive the momentum of the stalled dialogue and pave the way for the North’s nuclear disarmament.
In another words, Trump wants to remove one of the main obstacles to negotiations. The North has repeatedly called for the departure of Bolton. It has also expressed its anathema to the Libyan model which calls on the Kim Jong-un regime to dismantle its nuclear weapons before obtaining any concessions in return.
It is somewhat understandable for North Koreans to become hysterical about the denuclearization first model because then Libyan leader Moammar Gadhfi was removed from power and killed by NATO-backed rebel forces in 2011 after giving up his nuclear program in 2003.
Raising hope for the resumption of the nuclear talks, the North’s chief nuclear negotiator Kim Myong-gil welcomed Trump’s new method suggestion. On Friday, Kim said he welcomed the “wise political decision” of President Trump to approach Pyongyang-Washington relations from a more practical point of view.
Now the question is how to make real progress. Trump’s new method reminds anyone of the North’s demand for a “new calculation method,” which is none other than Pyongyang’s call for sanctions relief in exchange for the dismantlement of its aged Yongbyon nuclear complex. The second Trump-Kim summit held in Hanoi in February collapsed without making any deal due to this demand.
In this situation, we have to express cautious optimism. It is necessary for the U.S. to give a carrot to the North to get it to return to negotiations. But it does not necessarily mean the Trump administration should play into the hands of the Kim regime. The two sides should not try to meet halfway for a nuclear freeze or partial denuclearization.
Trump is adamant in producing foreign policy achievements by making a deal with the North to boost his re-election bid next year. Fort his part, Kim urgently needs to resuscitate the moribund North Korean economy. But they should not strike a deal that falls short of final, fully verified denuclearization to ensure peace on the Korean Peninsula.