N. Korea likely to return to nuclear dialogue with US
‘Both sides will resume talks in next few weeks’
North Korea will return to nuclear disarmament talks with the United States despite last week’s breakdown of their dialogue in Sweden, as it intentionally made the decision to leave the first negotiations early to increase its political leverage, experts said Monday.
Ending a months-long hiatus in their denuclearization dialogue, officials from Washington and Pyongyang met in Stockholm amid expectations of a possible breakthrough in the suspended talks.
But Pyongyang declared a breakdown just hours after the meeting started in the Swedish capital. It stepped up criticism of Washington for sticking to an “old-fashioned” attitude, even after the fiasco of the failed Hanoi summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in February.
Local experts said such rhetoric was nothing more than a “politically-calculated” message for a bigger outcome in future talks with the U.S.
“My view is that both sides will resume their talks in the next few weeks following instructions from their leaders,” Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said. “One thing that is clear is both sides have expressed their willingness to talk, so they will not end the negotiations due to a single incident in Stockholm,” he added.
Jeong Se-hyun, deputy chairman of the presidential National Unification Advisory Council, said in a local radio interview that the North made the “strategic decision” to step up pressure on the U.S. to get it to change its negotiating style.
“This is part of its brinkmanship tactics to drive a change in attitude in the U.S. no later than the end of the year,” Jeong said. “It appears the North decided that it did not have to accept demands from the U.S. at this time, and instead, moved to raise the bar to achieve something more.”
The government here remained optimistic over the prospects of the nuclear disarmament dialogue.
“The recent meeting, in itself, comes with significance, as both sides were able to clarify each other’s positions after their seven-monthlong break in talks in the wake of the Hanoi breakdown,” a Ministry of Unification official said. “For this reason, it is too early to say that the momentum for the talks has been halted.”
An official from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Seoul would continue to play a mediating role to keep the momentum alive.
“The government will work closely with the U.S. to maintain the dialogue momentum with the North,” he said.
Lee Do-hoon, Seoul’s top nuclear envoy and the counterpart of U.S. Special Representative Stephen Biegun, left for Washington D.C. for talks with Biegun, who led the working-level talks with the North.
Lee will be briefed on the outcome of the talks, and discuss plans to generate practical and tangible achievements for sustainable peace and complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, according to the foreign ministry.
While North Korea said its working-level nuclear disarmament talks with the United States in Sweden over the weekend failed to meet expectations, the government here is still hoping to invite North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to Busan.
Diplomatic sources told The Korea Times, Monday, that preparatory work was still underway for Kim’s possible visit to Busan in November, though the chances of it actually happening are considered low.
“We were hoping for Washington and Pyongyang to see progress in their denuclearization talks as Kim’s visit to Busan depends somewhat on the negotiations,” an official at Cheong Wa Dae said. The government has yet to send an official invitation to the North, as it is basing this on results from the nuclear dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang.
Tak Hyun-min, President Moon Jae-in’s planning advisory committee member, said earlier that the presidential office was preparing for the possible visit. The National Intelligence Service also hinted recently that Kim could visit Busan if the nuclear dialogue developed in a positive manner.
The relevant government authorities are also keeping a close watch on the upcoming restart of the working-level talks, expected in two weeks.
“The fundamental stance of the government is to keep taking steps not just for the improvement in relations between the two Koreas, but also between Washington and Pyongyang,” an official said.
If Kim visits Busan, it would be the first trip by a North Korean leader to South Korean soil beyond the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), and could help President Moon’s ruling Democratic Party of Korea improve its chances in next year’s general election. During a summit last September with Moon in Pyongyang, Kim promised to visit Seoul soon, but that promise has yet to materialize mostly due to the lack of progress in the denuclearization negotiations.
A special summit between South Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is planned in Busan for Nov. 25 and 26. President Moon will use his participation in next month’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (APEC) in Chile to ask Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to support his idea of inviting Kim to Busan.
Putin and Xi confirmed they will be at the APEC event. But U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe haven’t yet notified APEC over their possible attendance.
“Kim’s visit to Busan is important for Moon as the President is desperate for a breakthrough in the U.S.North Korea denuclearization talks to revive his engagement-centric inter-Korean policy. Also, Moon is being hit hard by a series of domestic and economic issues,” said Kim Kyung-min, a politics professor at Hanyang University in Seoul.
Jeong Se-hyun, the new deputy chairman of the National Unification Advisory Council, concurred over the chances. “If Kim Jong-un visits Busan upon the invitation from Moon, there is a high probability they will hold a summit,” Jeong said during a recent council seminar.
Pyongyang’s chief nuclear negotiator Kim Myong-gil blamed the U.S. negotiating team over the failure of the working-level talks, insisting the United States didn’t change its “old viewpoint and attitude.” But the U.S. side said it held good discussions with its North Korean counterparts.
Jeong, a former unification minister, added that the impeachment investigation into Trump may put the brakes on the resumption of the denuclearization talks.