Take Trump impeachment inquiry seriously
Because U.S. President Donald Trump has been so unorthodox and controversial in his nearly three years in office, it would be easy to dismiss the most recent scandal related to the Ukraine as just another scandal. But the case against Trump is a serious one and is also an unprecedented moment in U.S. history.
While three U.S. presidents have previously been impeached, including Bill Clinton a little more than two decades ago, this is the first time a U.S. president has faced the prospect of impeachment over concerns that the president sought the help of a foreign power in a U.S. election.
The basic case against Trump is that he sought aid against his political rival and potential 2020 presidential opponent Joe Biden when he asked the Ukraine for a favor — to investigate Biden and his son’s prior conduct in the Ukraine.
While there has been much speculation that Trump will survive impeachment and benefit electorally, it is actually unclear what the results of the current impeachment process will be.
Trump has never been a popular president and a recent ABC/Ipsos poll found that 83 percent of Americans were unsurprised to learn that he had asked the Ukrainian government to investigate Biden.
The same poll found that over 60 percent of Americans consider the allegation serious. With Trump having acknowledged asking the Ukraine to investigate Biden, the question going forward is whether the American public believes it is an offense for which he should be removed from office.
The two modern cases of impeachment are also inconclusive as a guide for how the Trump impeachment might play out. When the Watergate hearings began, only 19 percent of Americans believed that Richard Nixon should be impeached.
Those number only rose to 38 percent when the impeachment inquiry began five months later. It would take another eight months for a majority of Americans to support Nixon being impeached. In contrast, only 34 percent of American’s thought Clinton should be impeached and those numbers barely moved during the impeachment process.
Prior to announcement by Speaker Nancy Pelosi that the House of Representatives would pursue an impeachment inquiry, only 40 percent of Americans supported impeaching Trump. Those numbers have been rising, with a recent poll showing that 55 percent of Americans are now in favor of an impeachment inquiry.
In a much more partisan era dominated by a fragmented media it is unclear that either previous impeachment will indicate how the investigation and potential impeachment of Trump will turn out, but it is also clear that Trump begins this process with more Americans in favor of impeachment than there were for either Nixon or Clinton.
Should the House impeach Trump, the assumption that Senate Republicans would acquit Trump should be examined. During Nixon’s impeachment Republicans continued to support the president until it was clear that the American public did not.
In an era of hyper-partisanship, the overall views of the American public may be less consequential, but the views of Republican voters will weigh heavy on Senate Republicans.
If support for impeachment begins to grow among Republican voters and Trump begins to hurt the electoral chances of other Republicans, expect his support in the Senate to begin to dissipate.
Acquittal and a strong economy might not help Trump either.
While many experts will point to Clinton’s improving approval ratings during the impeachment process as evidence that impeachment will backfire against Democrats, there are key differences that could result in a different outcome today.
At the time of his impeachment, Clinton was a relatively popular figure liked by the American public with an approval rating over 60 percent. Trump has been unable to make that claim at any time during his presidency.
Additionally, Clinton was impeached over lying under oath about his affair with Monica Lewinsky, something at the time Americans might have been sympathetic to even if they disapproved of the behavior. However, had Clinton’s impeachment taken place today rather than in the 1990s he might have faced a much harder road of surviving a sex scandal during the era of #MeToo.
Trump’s purported offense is also of a significantly different nature — seeking the aid of a foreign government for personal electoral gain. It is unclear how the American public will view that offense.
While a strong economy and low unemployment generally help incumbents win re-election, a good economy may be of less benefit for Trump. As The Economist pointed out earlier this year, economic performance is no longer a good reflection of a president’s approval and has not been since early in the Obama administration.
If economic performance is no longer a key indicator of potential electoral success, Trump may have a narrower path to victory in 2020 even if he survives impeachment. In this case, watch for Trump’s support in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
These were the key states he won in the 2016 election and are the ones most likely to be won in 2020 by a Democratic opponent. His approval rating is below 50 percent in each. He cannot win re-election without winning these states.
These next few weeks and months will be the political fight of Trump’s life, and he will have an incentive to do what he can to save his presidency, including looking for victories in foreign policy.
At a time when North Korea is encouraging Trump to make a bold decision, South Korea should be more cautious in its desire to see Trump take any such bold step.
Any agreement reached with North Korea will be viewed through the lens of a president furthering his interests through foreign policy and could fall apart quickly. The U.S. needs to continue talks with North Korea, but now may not be the time for bold decisions.