Taming wayward brother
On Oct. 11, 1990, South and North Korea held their first friendly football match at Rungrado 1st of May Stadium in Pyongyang. After the game, players from both teams and 150,000 North Korean spectators sang the song “Our Wish Is Unification” together. The Korean Peninsula appeared to be one step closer to reunification at the time.
Things could hardly be more different on Oct. 15 this year. There were three “nos” at the Kim Il-sung Stadium in the North Korean capital, where the Koreas held their 2022 Qatar World Cup qualifying match — no spectators, no broadcasts and no scores. It was more like combat than a football match, a South Korean official recalled later. Son Heung-min, the South’s captain, also said, “I think it fortunate that we could come back with few serious injuries.”
That marked a stark contrast to the unity and fraternity demonstrated at the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics just 20 months ago, let alone the first soccer match of 29 years ago.
What made North Korea — or its leader Kim Jong-un — do a political flip-flop in less than two years?
One can think of some reasons, from a strictly North Korean standpoint.
First, North Korea seems to believe its diplomatic debacle eight months ago in Hanoi, Vietnam, was due in large part to the South’s failure as a mediator.
Encouraged by optimistic hints from the South, Kim Jong-un might have thought U.S. President Donald Trump would considerably lift America’s economic sanctions if he refrains from conducting nuclear tests or launching long-range ballistic missiles. As is well known, the U.S. president raised the hands of his hawkish aides and sent Kim back to his country empty-handed.
Second, to add insult to injury, South Korean President Moon Jaein has since made a series of peace overtures. In his speech at a ceremony to celebrate Liberation Day on Aug. 15, Moon made his “peace economy” proposal, which calls for the two Koreas to unite their economic potentials to beat their former colonizer, Japan.
What matters for Kim, however, was not a rosy economic picture in some distant future but more immediate help to rebuild his impoverished country. As Kim sees it, Moon should have resumed South Koreans’ tours to Mount Geumgang and/ or reopened the inter-Korean factory park in the North Korean border city of Gaeseong — but would not, or could not, do so.
Third, despite the inter-Korean agreement on arms control on Sept. 19, 2018, South Korea continued its military buildup by introducing stateof-the-art weapons from the United States, including F-35A jet fighters, and pushed ahead with its joint military drills with the American troops.
If Kim puts himself in Moon’s shoes, however, things could turn different. The South Korean leader has long been the target of criticism among his conservative opponents for being too compliant toward the North and its leader.
Moon even arranged a one-on-one meeting between Kim and Trump at the truce village of Panmunjeom and remained content with playing a matchmaker’s role despite fierce attacks from his political rivals. What Moon and South Korea can do stops there. What’s left is up to Pyongyang and Washington. If their talks hit a snag, the two sides should find a breakthrough.
By most appearances, President Trump is not very eager to solve the North Korean nuclear crisis. All he wants is to ensure that the North’s nuclear weapons cannot reach the U.S. mainland and to make American voters believe he brought the North’s Kim out from the cold.
If Pyongyang returns to its brinkmanship tactics and resumes the tests of nuclear devices or intercontinental ballistic missiles, the mercurial U.S. leader might feel tempted to impress his electorates with military adventures. If Kim’s current priority is not swelling his nuclear arsenal but rebuilding the devastated economy, he should have thought twice before calling off the working-level meeting in Stockholm in a tit-for-tat of the Hanoi fiasco.
Kim might think resuming inter-Korean economic cooperation projects would be possible if Moon decides so. Some inter-Korean doves in the South seem to have similar views. There may be ways for the Koreas to reopen the tour program and joint industrial complex without violating U.N. resolutions and offending the U.S.
As long as the North’s propaganda machine keeps bombarding Moon and his administration with rough words as they are now, however, Moon cannot do so if he wishes, because of his domestic political opponents’ attacks and unfavorable public opinion.
North Korea should also rethink its accusations of the South’s military buildup. South Korea needs a far stronger navy and air force than now less because of possible inter-Korean military conflicts than because of threats from other potential adversaries.
Only recently, Chinese and Russian military aircraft invaded the South’s airspace as if they were testing the latter’s response. Japan also made it clear it could send fighter jets if the dispute over the Dokdo islets develops into a conflict. Strengthening the South’s military will prove to be beneficial for the entire peninsula in the long run.
A majority of South Koreans support the North Korea policy of President Moon and his administration as aiming at peaceful co-prosperity of the Koreas until their eventual reunification. That said, Moon should not hurry to make historic accomplishments within his tenure in part because inter-Korean reconciliation is a time-consuming task and because too much haste might cause public suspicion about some hidden agenda for domestic politics.
Conservative media outlets sneer at Moon’s policy by comparing it to unrequited love. If a comparison is necessary, however, the current North Korean regime is like a wayward little boy who continually challenges a far stronger older brother, economically and even militarily, wielding a lethal weapon that he cannot use unless he is willing to die.
An older brother may have to endure, coddle and persuade a younger and rude sibling. Sometimes, however, the best way to tame a wayward boy is leaving him on his own — until he begs for help.