Moon’s diplomacy with US
As a person who does research on China, I am often someone who points out a litany of problems in the South Korea-China relationship, including the recent discord over THAAD.
But as I’ve been shuttling between Seoul and Beijing, as well as Seoul and Washington, I’ve come to a resounding Eureka realization that the Seoul-Washington relationship faces more serious challenges than the Seoul-Beijing ties. It may seem odd, given that Washington is Seoul’s main ally. This warrants attention from the Moon administration.
The recent news of South Korean students breaking into the U.S. ambassador’s residence became a huge issue in Washington, more than Seoul thinks it is. A former senior U.S. government official asked me: Did something similar happen to the Chinese ambassador’s residence in Seoul?
The question continued: “How severe is the anti-American sentiment in South Korea? Both America and South Korea fought together as a team during the Korean War against the Chinese. Were there any anti-Chinese protests in Seoul? Were there any civic protests regarding the Hong Kong issue? How are South Koreans thinking about China these days?”
The “China angle” in the question may come as something unexpected to South Koreans. But this line of thinking is how Washington views South Korea — as a country that is gradually pulling away from Washington and getting closer to China.
I visited Washington to attend a forum that discussed the North Korea nuclear issue. During the coffee break, however, the Americans asked me questions that were more related to China and the current Moon government’s policy orientation toward China.
To cut to the chase, many in Washington are raising eyebrows about the growing Seoul-Beijing relationship. Both Seoul and Washington should discuss it in a frank and honest fashion, in case there is any misunderstanding.
How robust is the South Korea-U.S. relationship? Obviously, we cannot compare it with the Israel-U.S. relationship. In 2016, in signing a historic military aid package deal with Israel, then U.S. national security adviser Susan Rice said, “That iron-clad bond has endured ‘Dor l’dor,’ Hebrew for ‘from generation to generation.’”
The wording “from generation to generation” got my attention. I had heard it somewhere else. In June in Pyongyang, Chinese leader Xi Jinping and his wife, first lady Peng Liyuan, paid homage to the “China-North Korea Friendship Tower” that memorializes the fallen Chinese soldiers during the Korean War. Xi wrote down in the inscription book “The China-DPRK friendship lasts from generation to generation.”
Earlier this month, in commemorating the 70th anniversary of China-North Korea diplomatic ties, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said: “It is an unswerving policy of the DPRK’s party and government to carry forward the DPRK-China friendship from generation to generation.”
Will the South Korea-U.S. friendship also last from generation to generation?
The South Korea-U.S. alliance is showing signs of losing robustness, with efforts to denuclearize North Korea in limbo. The two allies have felt increasingly uneasy toward each other over how to handle Pyongyang, the planned transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea, as well as the Moon administration’s decision to terminate a military information-sharing pact with Tokyo.
Regarding the last part, I heard an earful from Americans in Washington too. Even though Seoul may think that the pact is with Japan, Washington invested a good deal of policy energy and resources to see it happen. That’s why Washington took offense to Seoul’s decision. This underlying psychology and frustration on the part of Washington shouldn’t be overlooked.
The largest irony is that the weakening Seoul-Washington relationship is happening in broad daylight with many onlookers. It’s like a frog in a slowly boiling pot. Both Seoul and Washington keep acclimating to the rising temperature of the water. Without noticing, there will be a casualty.
The first casualty could be the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea. “There is a real blind spot for something like this to happen toward the end of this year,” observed a Washington insider.
South Koreans overwhelmingly think that is unlikely. Some also point out that the presence of U.S. troops in South Korea is based on securing U.S. geopolitical interest in the region.
The logic doesn’t hold water with one person, Trump, who happens to be the most powerful person in the United States. He even sees joint South Korea-U.S. military drills as “very expensive” and not necessary.
There is urgency in amending the “blind spot” in the Moon administration’s diplomacy with Washington: the alliance.