‘Seoul’s hedging strategy not viable over long term’
The government’s balancing act of hedging growing pressure from the rivalry between the U.S. and China is not a viable long-term strategy, and Seoul needs to get away from the idea that its alliance with the U.S. is an anti-China coalition, according to Victor Cha, a renowned U.S. academic in Asian affairs.
Cha made the remarks during a webinar hosted by the Seoulbased Institute for Global Economics, Thursday. Cha is the Korea chairman at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and former director of Asian affairs at the White House National Security Council.
During his address, Cha said the South Korea-U.S. alliance faced “new headwinds” following rapid changes in the political dynamics in Asia over the past several years, and the Joe Biden administration is “signaling its seriousness in approaching Asia and rebuilding relationships” with allies through diplomatic activities including last month’s Seoul visit by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
Cha said one of those headwinds includes South Korea’s “growing isolation from the multilateral grouping” of major democracies in Asia in the face of an “assertive” China.
Showing a chart of lines connecting the U.S., South Korea, Japan, India and Australia, Cha stressed that Seoul is only connected to those countries with dotted lines, meaning it is in talks with them over joining multilateral initiatives or organizations, such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership or Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, while the other countries are already members of the groups.
“There are no solid lines connecting South Korea with other countries,” he said. “This is a concerning thing that the isolation is growing in the coalition grouping.”
Cha said this is largely about China, describing the country as “a big, strong and sometimes a bullying neighbor” regarding South Korea.
Citing Seoul’s strategy of hedging challenges stemming from tensions between the U.S. and China, Cha said it will not be “a viable long-term strategy,” and there will be “less and less hedge space.”
New framework
To address this, Cha underscored that the South Korea-U.S. alliance has to come up with a new framework which replaces the idea that the alliance is an anti-China movement, and pursue a “resilient Asia” that can ensure stable supply chains, eco-friendly networks and other broader values. And for this, the two countries should engage in more “serious and candid conversations.”
“China’s economic coercion will continue, and no country can handle this alone,” he said. “It will be better standing as a group than standing alone.”
He also said the Biden administration is attempting to rebuild Seoul-Washington relations to recover the trust which was “eroded” by the previous Donald Trump administration, as the alliance is critical in addressing challenges from China and North Korea.
Cha said the alliance has focused on significant but narrow issues, such as defense cost-sharing, when there were much broader issues that could provide a public good to the international community. He pointed to cyber security, public health, climate change, energy, the environment and outer space cooperation as “new frontiers of an agenda for the alliance.”