Liberals in free-for-all fight as DPK fails to patch up feuds
Scenarios for general elections becoming more complicated
The liberals in Korean politics are splitting into various splinter groups as they fail to patch up conflicts surrounding main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) Chairman Lee Jae-myung’s powerful grip on recommending candidates for the April 10 general elections.
Dozens of DPK members are also leaving the party to join those splinter groups despite their uncertain future, expressing their grievances with Lee’s “coercive leadership.” With scenarios becoming ever more complicated for the liberal bloc, some analysts even anticipate that it may be difficult for the DPK to secure more than 100 out of 300 National Assembly seats.
During an interview with broadcaster MBC on Friday, DPK floor leader Rep. Hong Ihk-pyo denounced the party’s decision to exclude Rep. Hong Youngpyo from the candidate nomination in his constituency, Incheon’s Bupyeong-B.
“I absolutely don’t understand what kind of political decision it was,” the floor leader said. “Rep. Hong told me that he will not leave the DPK as long as he can compete in a primary, and I delivered his intention to the candidate recommendation committee, but he ended up being sidelined from the primary.”
Hong Young-pyo is a four-term lawmaker categorized into a faction of loyalists to former President Moon Jae-in. He has been critical of the DPK’s candidate nomination process, claiming that it is aimed at sidelining those who are not loyal to the party chairman. He has been assisting a protest staged by former presidential chief of staff Im Jong-seok, who was also sidelined from candidacy.
After the exclusion, Rep. Hong dropped hints at that he would leave the party, saying “I will purse my purpose with those who have thoughts on new politics.”
Hong’s remarks are interpreted as showing his intention to form a group of pro-Moon DPK defectors, tentatively called “the Democratic Coalition.” It will be a gathering of serving lawmakers who left the DPK in protest of the party’s candidate nominations, and its members will run as independent candidates in the elections.
Members rumored to be interested in the Democratic Coalition include Rep. Sul Hoon, who left the party protesting his placement in the bottom 10 percent of lawmakers in an evaluation of legislative performance.
Sul, a five-term lawmaker, told Dong-A Ilbo newspaper that he and Hong will form the Democratic Coalition with the goal of teaming up with approximately 10 serving lawmakers.
Along with Sul and Hong, a series of liberal politicians who been in the DPK for more than a decade decided to leave their nest after losing their candidacies.
Rep. Kim Young-joo, the National Assembly deputy speaker who announced her departure in early February, is a four-term lawmaker. Rep. Lee Won-wook, who left the DPK and joined the Reform Party, is a three-term lawmaker, and Saemirae Party head Lee Nak-yon has served five terms as a DPK lawmaker, as well as having been party chairman previously.
Complicated scenarios
It may be difficult
for the DPK to secure more than
100 seats in constituencies. Though DPK Chairman Lee says there will be a rebound in March, I have never seen such a dramatic reverse.
The emergence of the Democratic Coalition is making the liberal bloc’s election scenarios even more complicated.
As of Friday, there are four splinter political parties or groups which have embraced politicians leaving the DPK after clashing over Chairman Lee’s dominance.
The Saemirae Party, led by Lee Nakyon, now has two serving lawmakers. The Reform Party, which was set up as a big tent group of outcasts from both liberal and conservative parties, has four incumbent lawmakers.
The National Innovation Party, led by Cho Kuk, former justice minister during the Moon administration, has yet to complete its legal process for establishment. When the Democratic Coalition officially kicks off, though it may not be a political party, the DPK will likely see more of its lawmakers defecting.
In terms of political presence, the Saemirae Party appears to have an advantage in snatching up DPK defectors, given the name value of its head Lee Nak-yon, who competed with DPK Chairman Lee as a presidential hopeful in 2022. Also, the Reform Party is a mix of conservatives and liberals, and the other two are in their infancy in terms of establishment.
However, recent surveys have shown different results.
In a poll by Hankook Research requested by KBS, the Saemirae Party secured only 1 percent of the support rate, while the Reform Party and the National Innovation Party enjoyed 4 percent support rates. This was the highest among parties other than the DPK and the ruling People Power Party.
In a separate poll by Opinion Research Justice, requested by The Public and Finance Today, 16.2 percent of respondents said they will choose the National Innovation Party when voting for proportional representation. The Hankook Research poll surveyed 3,003 voters from Feb. 25 to 27, while the Opinion Research Justice poll surveyed 1,005 voters. Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.
The numbers have become an alarming signal for the Saemirae Party, because Lee Nak-yon has already ruled out the chance of joining forces with the National Innovation Party. Given that the National Innovation Party’s Cho is also an iconic figure of the Moon administration, there are remaining chances for the Democratic Coalition to unite with the National Innovation Party, dealing a critical blow to the Saemirae Party.
Because of this, Lee Nak-yon said in a radio interview with BBS on Feb. 29, “I have always been thinking that I can open up space for colleagues and accommodate them whenever needed,” referring to the Democratic Coalition.
“If the Democratic Coalition is established and there is a necessity to change our name, I told them that we can accept that,” Lee said. “I am willing to do whatever it takes if it means joining forces and pooling our strength together.”
While uncertainties cloud the future of DPK splinter groups, what seems clear is that troubles lie ahead for the DPK’s election campaigns.
“It may be difficult for the DPK to secure more than 100 seats in constituencies,” Eom Gyeong-young, director of the Zeitgeist Institute, a private political think tank, said during a recent radio interview with broadcaster YTN. “Though DPK Chairman Lee says there will be a rebound in March, I have never seen such a dramatic reverse.”
Eom continued that liberal voters who are disappointed with the DPK’s internal chaos will likely cast proportional representation votes for the National Innovation Party, and it may secure seven to eight proportional seats, resulting in the DPK’s proportional seats remaining below five.
“The National Innovation Party will gain the most from the DPK’s conflicts over candidate nomination,” Eom said. “With the DPK showing signs of collapsing, can Chairman Lee can maintain his leadership? I see higher chances of Cho becoming the next DPK head.”