PPP holds slim lead over DPK ahead of April 10 elections

Ex-minister’s new party undermines support base of main opposition

The ruling People Power Party (PPP) held a slight lead over the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) in the race for the April 10 general elections, falling within the margin of error, according to a poll by The Korea Times, Wednesday, even though a substantial number of voters remained undecided.

In addition, the poll revealed that a newly established party, led by former Justice Minister Cho Kuk, is causing a stir in the political landscape, as it was observed to be trailing behind the DPK for proportional representation, eroding the main opposition’s support base.

According to the poll conducted by Hankook Research upon the request of the newspaper from Monday to Tuesday, 33 percent of 1,002 respondents said they would vote for candidates from the PPP in their respective electoral districts during the upcoming elections, while 30 percent expressed their preference for candidates from the DPK.

The 3-percentage-point gap is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, showing that the rival parties are still staging a neck-and-neck race. However, the ruling conservative party is widening the gap amid critical infighting within the liberal main opposition party over candidate selection, as the poll also showed that 56 percent disapproved of the DPK’s nomination process.

However, another 25 percent said they have yet to decide which party’s candidates to support in the constituency voting. With 92 percent of all respondents expressing their intention to participate in the general elections, the significant presence of swing voters suggests that their choices could potentially alter the election outcomes.

In Seoul, the DPK led with 34 percent, while the PPP followed with 32 percent. Similarly, in Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, the DPK held a lead with 35 percent, while the PPP trailed behind with 29 percent.

Instead, the PPP held a lead in the central regions of Daejeon and Chungcheong provinces, which have long served as barometers in Korea’s major elections, with 35 percent. The DPK trailed behind with 30 percent.

Both parties were firmly in control of their respective strongholds. The PPP secured 52 percent support in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, as well as 45 percent in Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province. Meanwhile, the DPK was prevailing in Gwangju and Jeolla provinces with 48 percent support.

Other than the rival parties, what was notable was the performance of former minister Cho’s party, named the National Innovation Party, which secured a 3 percent support in constituency voting. This was followed by the Reform Party led by former PPP Chairman Lee Jun-seok, with 1 percent, and the Saemirae Party led by former DPK Chairman Lee Nakyon, also with 1 percent.

The ascent of Cho’s party was particularly conspicuous in the question regarding preferred parties for proportional representation.

While 29 percent said they will vote for the PPP and its so-called “satellite party” being created for proportional representation and 21 percent for the DPK and its satellite party, another 15 percent, marking the third largest share, expressed support for the National Innovation Party.

This marks one of the highest rates that the National Innovation Party has achieved in polls concerning proportional representation. Considering that the party was officially established earlier this month, its rapid surge is expected to have a significant impact on the entire electoral landscape.

Among 341 respondents who said they support the DPK, 28 percent picked Cho’s party for proportional representation, and not the DPK’s satellite party, which means the National Innovation Party is effectively eroding the main opposition party’s support base.

However, a notable 26 percent of voters remain undecided regarding which party they will support for proportional representation.

Cho, who has been embroiled in a lengthy trial over allegations of fabricating academic documents to secure his daughter’s medical school admission, is widely seen as an antagonist of then-Prosecutor General Yoon Suk Yeol. Yoon had investigated the allegations against Cho, resisting then-President Moon Jae-in’s push to hold off on the probe. While Cho has been crying foul over the investigations, their battle propelled Yoon to political prominence among the conservatives and eventually made him the president.

“The National Innovation Party’s rise is attributable to voters critical of the Yoon administration but disappointed by the DPK,” said Shin Yul, a professor of political science at Myongji University.

“While the DPK is failing to concentrate on its campaigns against the ruling bloc due to internal division, Cho’s party has emerged as an alternative by targeting the prosecution’s growing influence within the Yoon administration.”

Shin’s comments are in line with the poll results.

Fifty-two percent of all respondents said they believe voters should support the opposition bloc to keep the Yoon administration in check, while 38 percent said the opposite. This suggests that many voters perceive the Yoon administration as failing to steer the country in the right direction, yet they are not throwing their support behind the DPK.

Similar results were observed in questions about the respective election slogans of the rival parties.

When asked about opinions on the DPK’s slogan, “making a judgment against the prosecution’s dominance in the Yoon administration,” 57 percent expressed agreement, while 37 percent said they disagreed.

On the other hand, 48 percent of the respondents said they agree with the PPP’s slogan, “rooting out politics controlled by former liberal activists,” while 44 percent said they disagreed.

The Korea Times commissioned the survey to gauge public sentiment. Hankook Research surveyed 1,002 adults in phone interviews on Monday and Tuesday.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with a credibility rate of 95 percent. Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.