Ukraine war and case of North Korea
The case for supporting Ukraine is supporting democracy and the rule of law, security through alliances and support for an open world, with economic relations founded on common rules. Now often referred to as the rules-based international order.
The United States took the lead in establishing this system, with the blunders, hypocrisy and inconsistency of implementation since the late 1940s, and brought about three generations of relative peace among great powers, no third world war and unparalleled prosperity. It saw an end to the European and Soviet empires.
The United States is frequently accused of acting like other great powers in the past. But the U.S.-led order is not zero-sum. It held open the gates of growth and encouraged the rise and prosperity of countries all over the world.
After the invasion of Ukraine by Russia began in February 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden spoke of the need to meet simultaneous challenges to the “rules-based international order” from two authoritarian adversaries, China and Russia.
However, former U.S. President Donald Trump and his “MAGA” allies have made clear that they do not accept the term “rules-based international order.” Rhetorically, they reject it as “globalism” bringing back memories of the “America first” isolationists in Congress before the U.S. entered World War II.
Trump repeatedly expressed disdain and even hostility towards NATO and the European Union; he seems to prefer great power politics and the logic of “might makes right.”
On Feb. 1, Brussels passed a fouryear $54 billion package of aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, a proposed $60 billion aid package to Kyiv remains blocked in Congress due to opposition from House Republicans.
Europe considers the attempted destruction of Ukraine as an existential threat. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that Russia could invade a NATO state within five to eight years, plunging all of Europe into war.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen frequently reminds Europeans that “Ukraine is fighting for us.”
While Europe has continued to ramp up support for arming Ukraine, training Ukraine soldiers and boosting European arms production, Europe would have to substantially increase its efforts in order to win without the United States, in case it comes to that.
On Jan. 30, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that Europe “must be ready to act to defend and support Ukraine with whatever it takes and whatever America decides.”
On the other hand, China has aligned more closely with Russia. Beijing is also intensifying its cooperation with the emerging countries of the Global South and taking a more anti-American, and generally anti-Western, position.
It was the message of the video conference between President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin at the end of last year.
In China’s foreign ministry readout, Xi stated that China and Russia should “strengthen strategic coordination,” safeguard their “national sovereignty, security development interests” and “resolutely oppose external interference in their internal affairs.”
Before Xi came to power, decades of reform under his predecessors had led Chinese administrative and technical elites toward approaches somewhat closer to the West. But that changed after Xi.
A case in point is the recent appointment as China’s new defense minister Dong Jun, a former navy commander in the South China Sea and a Russian speaker trained at Russia’s top military institute. And his first official engagement was a video call to his Russian counterpart, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
When the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine began, China seemed confident that Kyiv would quickly fall. However, from the beginning, Moscow’s “Special Military Operation” did not go as expected and met with one military disaster after another.
Beijing launched its “smart diplomacy,” trying to avoid the appearance of being Russia’s accomplice in the war, instead presenting itself as a neutral mediator. Li Hui, former Chinese ambassador to Russia was dispatched to Kyiv as Beijing’s Special Representative for Eurasian Affairs to meet Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
According to Politico and Nikkei Asia, Putin was alarmed by Xi’s decision to mediate in the Ukraine war, seeing it as a move by the pro-Western, pro-U.S. faction in China’s foreign ministry. Putin sent a trusted official to tell Xi that his protégé, Foreign Minister Qin Gang, had allegedly leaked secrets to the U.S. He was removed and never heard from again, and a swift purge followed. Accordingly, Xi changed his stance on Ukraine.
Beijing in late 2023 signaled that China had no interest in taking part in peace talks proposed by Ukraine and the West, and maintained it had “limited influence” over the warring parties.
But something apparently has changed, and in late February 2024, China’s foreign ministry announced that the special envoy Li Hui, would embark on “the second round of shuttle diplomacy” trying to find a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis.
Meanwhile, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un has taken advantage of the rising power rivalry, and the renewal of a strategic and military relationship between North Korea and Russia.
North Korea’s military relationship with Russia has steadily expanded in volume and scope since the spring of 2023. North Korea supplies ammunition and missiles to Russia. In return, North Korea benefits from Russian military-related technologies from Moscow.
But the biggest concern is that Kim may have drawn a disturbing conclusion from Ukraine. His pronouncement last year about preemptive nuclear strikes appear to echo Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling in Ukraine, which many believe has kept NATO at bay.
And it’s possible that Kim may have concluded that he can take provocative military action against South Korea short of a major invasion thinking that his “powerful nuclear deterrent” would prevent the South and the United States from responding in kind. This is a serious possibility that should not be dismissed.