‘Interim steps’ toward NK don’t indicate US policy shift: experts
Biden administration softens tone on Pyongyang as elections near
Recent remarks by senior U.S. officials indicating a readiness to consider taking “interim steps” toward denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula do not signify a major policy shift by the U.S. government, observers said, with some linking the Americans’ softened rhetoric on Pyongyang to the upcoming presidential elections.
“We want dialogue, and there are lots of valuable discussions that we can have with the DPRK, including on risk reduction to reduce the risk of miscalculation or inadvertent escalation,” Jung Pak, the U.S. senior official for North Korea, said during a podcast hosted by the Center for Strategies and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank, Monday. DPRK stands for Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, North Korea’s official name.
“We could also talk about sanctions, or confidence-building or humanitarian cooperation,” she added.
But at the same time, Pak stressed that the policy goal for the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula remains unchanged.
She was referring to previous comments made by Mira Rapp-Hooper, the National Security Council senior director for East Asia and Oceania, during a forum held in Seoul earlier this month.
Rapp-Hooper said that Washington remains committed to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but would consider “interim steps” on that pathway to denuclearization, adding that these steps would make the region safer.
Interim steps are perceived to mean discussions involving a freeze of North Korea’s nuclear weapons development in exchange for sanctions relief. While this proposal is not new, as previous U.S. administrations — other than Donald Trump’s — have typically taken a phased approach to denuclearization, the fact that the messages came amid stalled dialogue with Pyongyang raised speculation that the Joe Biden administration might be extending an olive branch to the reclusive regime.
However, experts say that the U.S. officials’ change in tone does not indicate a change in stance.
“Recent statements by U.S. officials do not signify a change in policy. Washington has explicitly left the door to diplomacy with North Korea open, even as it strengthens deterrence by upgrading the alliance with Seoul and fostering trilateral cooperation with Tokyo,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.
Terence Roehrig, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, said, “I think it is a formal acknowledgment of what many have concluded for some time, namely that North Korea is not going to give up its nuclear weapons, certainly not at the outset of any process and not anytime soon.”
The professor also said that even if the U.S. did want to take interim measures, it would be a long journey at the moment as Washington has very little appetite for giving concessions to North Korea, and Pyongyang is highly unlikely to agree on any measures that would limit the growth of its nuclear and missile programs.
North Korea launched multiple short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea, Tuesday, breaking the month-long absence of military provocations. The North’s official Korean Central News Agency said on Wednesday that its leader Kim Jong-un supervised a live-fire drill involving nuclear-capable multiple rocket launchers designed to target South Korea’s capital.
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, viewed that a positive response from the Kim regime toward the U.S.’ gestures for interim measures is highly unlikely in the immediate future.
“North Korea may be interested in exploring the possibility of diplomacy with the U.S. if the removal of sanctions is on the table, as one of the interim steps in exchange for North Korea taking its own interim steps, such as pausing missile tests,” he said. “Having said that, I assume that North Korea will wait until the result of the U.S. presidential election to decide whether to engage in diplomacy.”
Pacheco Pardo also commented that the softened tone from U.S. officials is likely influenced by the upcoming election.
“The Biden administration is aware that there is criticism in South Korea but also within the U.S. that it has neglected the North Korean issue. It has recently become more vocal and open about its preferred policy approach, which coincides with the start of the U.S. presidential campaign in which North Korea will be discussed, given that Trump is the Republican candidate,” he said.
However, Roehrig cautioned against linking the North Korean issue with elections, saying, “I doubt this has much to do with the upcoming U.S. elections. North Korea policy is not a high priority for most Americans.”