Tug of war over summit

Proactively address moves by Pyongyang, Tokyo

North Korea and Japan are in a tug of war over a possible summit.

North Korea keeps brushing Japan off, ruling out any possibility of a summit talk to be held with Japan. Despite this, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida keeps trying to court North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to make the highest-level meeting happen sometime soon.

Their differing positions on the issue of the abduction of Japanese nationals stand as a key obstacle. Worse still, neither of the sides are ready to make concessions.

Japan claims that Japanese nationals who were abducted by North Korea over 40 years ago are still being held in the North, and demands a discussion on their return. But North Korea refutes this, insisting the abductees issue was resolved completely in the early 2000s during the summits between then Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and North Korean leader Kim Jongil, father of the current leader, and thus there’s nothing left to discuss on the matter.

The North Korean leader’s sister Kim Yo-jong criticized Japan for raising the abduction issue, claiming that though Kishida expressed his willingness to meet her brother directly, the summit won’t happen.

“There is one thing the Japanese prime minister must understand: Our supreme leader is not a person he can meet whenever he wants,” she said in a statement released on March 26.

North Korea’s foreign ministry officials reiterated a similar view.

Foreign Minister Choe Sonhui dismissed the possibility of a summit. In a statement released on March 29, Choe said she finds it difficult to understand Japan’s “obsession” with the abduction issue which, according to her, has already been settled. Prior to her statement, Ri Ryong-nam, North Korea’s ambassador to China, said his embassy received an email about the summit from an official at the Japanese Embassy in Beijing, adding the North has no plans to meet the Japanese prime minister. Kishida, however, didn’t give up. He said that the Japan-North Korea summit, if held, would benefit both countries. He added that he firmly believes the summit would contribute to regional peace and stability.

It remains uncertain whether North Korea’s denials of the summit reflect Kim Jong-un’s personal position.

The three who denied the summit are North Korean leader’s deputies, not Kim himself. Kim’s rare silence about the summit raises a key question: Why would a head of state remain silent on such an important foreign policy issue that could have enormous impact on his and his nation’s fate, while letting his deputies speak for him?

One possible answer to this question may be that he is still calculating potential gains and losses stemming from such a summit.

If this is true, Kim will want more time to think about the utility of the summit and therefore will intentionally try to leave room for a last-minute reversal by remaining silent for now. He would know better than anyone else that the summit will include economic incentives in return for North Korea’s possible suspension of provocations, an option he will find hard to resist. But Kim may not be sure about whether the gains he is calculating will be realized.

As his sister pointed out in her March 26 statement, Kim knows Kishida needs the summit to boost his lackluster approval ratings at home. Kim’s worst fear will be that if the North Korea-Japan summit is held, it can end up only benefiting Kishida. Kim himself had a similar bitter experience back in 2018 when he met then-U.S. President Donald Trump in Hanoi, Vietnam and the summit was cut short after the two sides failed to narrow their differences regarding denuclearization. The specter of the Hanoi summit may haunt Kim.

History tells us that diplomatic breakthroughs could happen. A North Korea-Japan summit could take place, despite their deep differences on the abduction issue.

Most vulnerable to North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction, South Korea needs to closely watch the developments in Pyongyang-Tokyo relations and be fully prepared to address any possible shift in the situation.

If Kishida and Kim agree to meet for a summit against all odds, it would help de-escalate the tensions that have been mounting in the region. The U.S. presidential election in November is another key factor that can greatly affect regional security in East Asia.

The back-to-back political events and activities in Japan and the U.S. will likely impact North Korea’s possible courses of action and this will require South Korea to come up with effective policy responses to turn the tide in its favor. Depending on the results, Seoul may need to change its hard-line policy toward the North.