Centre-left opens poll lead

Set to pick nominee for PM

ROME, Nov 30, (Agencies): Italy’s centre-left Democratic Party has increased its lead over the centre right ahead of an election expected in March, while the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement of comic Beppe Grillo has slipped slightly, a poll showed on Friday.

The poll by the SWG polling institute showed the Democratic Party (PD) with 30 percent support, up from 26.7 percent a week earlier, as the party’s widely-praised primary campaign to choose its main election candidate lifted support.

Grillo’s movement, which wants Italy to hold a referendum over whether to stay in the euro, saw its support slip to 19.5 percent from 21.1 percent a week earlier.

Former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right People of Freedom party (PDL), which has plunged into deep crisis and is on the brink of splitting apart, was third at 14.3 percent, down one percentage point from a week before.

Berlusconi’s electoral intentions remain unknown after several changes of mind over whether to run or not.

There has been wide speculation that he may set up a breakaway group from the PDL possibly named after Forza Italia, the party he created to launch his political career in 1994.

According to the SWG poll, such a breakaway party might win 9.3 percent, while reducing a rump PDL to around 4 percent.

The new centrist movement led by Ferrari chairman Luca Cordero di Montezemolo, which wants to continue the reform agenda of Prime Minister Mario Monti, saw its support fall to 3.8 percent from 4.8 percent a week earlier.

The PD will need to seek the support of a smaller coalition partner but whether the centre left will have enough support to form a stable parliamentary majority will depend in large part on the outcome of a months-long struggle to reform the electoral system which will regulate the ballot.

The current system, which is criticised on all sides, allows party bosses to handpick members of parliament without giving voters any say and rewards the biggest party with a huge winner’s bonus, whether or not it gains a majority of votes.

Meanwhile, Italian centre-left voters take to the polls on Sunday to choose between Democratic Party leader Pier Luigi Bersani and Florence mayor Matteo Renzi to be their candidate for prime minister next year.

The 61-year-old Bersani, a former communist party man, faces a stark challenge from the 37-year-old Renzi, a rising star who looks to US President Barack Obama and former British prime minister Tony Blair for inspiration.

Both candidates have said that if they win the general election they would follow the broad course of reforms set by Prime Minister Mario Monti, who has pulled Italy back from the brink of bankruptcy during a year in government.

Bersani however has said he would seek to moderate some of the austerity measures implemented by Monti, which have created growing resentment among many Italians against the unelected tehnocratic government currently in place.

Vote

The winner of the vote will be one of the favourites to lead Italy’s next government since polls indicate the Democratic Party will win general elections expected in March or April 2013, although not with an outright majority.

The primary selection process is also being seen as an important milestone for the left since the wave of support for Renzi could move the Democratic Party towards a more centrist political stance comparable to Britain’s “New Labour”.

Bersani won 44.9 percent of the vote in a first round of the primary on November 25 in which 3.1 million people cast their ballots. Renzi came second with 35.5 percent — a result that still impressed many political observers.

For his US-style campaign for the nomination, Renzi travelled across Italy in a camper van and held rallies under the slogan: “Let’s Change Italy Now!”

Bersani too is not taking victory for granted and has been touring the country to mobilise the electorate and to try to win over the people who voted for three other candidates who were runners-up in the first round.

A recent poll gave Bersani a ninepoint lead over Renzi, but his more charismatic rival scores better in television debates and is seen as a “transversal” figure who can take votes from the centre-right come next year.

Following a debate on RAI public television this week, 49 percent of viewers polled by La Stampa daily said they found Renzi more convincing. Only 38 percent thought Bersani had won the debate.

In the run-up to the primary, Bersani has tried to spruce up his image by taking to social media and promoting women to senior posts on his team.

The former minister has presented himself as a calming influence on a stormy political scene against Renzi, who has no experience in national government.

“I tend to think Renzi cannot win,” said Massimo Franco, a columnist for the Corriere della Sera, the biggest-selling daily in Italy.

“Renzi has scored a victory anyway by taking so many votes,” he said.

The result will hinge in large part on what supporters of runner-up Nichi Vendola will do. Vendola, who is seen as more of a leftist than either Bersani or Renzi, won 15 percent of the vote in the first round last Sunday.