Iran eyes plutonium
‘SANCTIONS MAY DISTORT REGION’S ECONOMY FOR YEARS’
March talks set
LONDON, Feb 27, (Agencies): Satellite images show that Iran’s Arak heavy-water plan is operational, raising fears that it is trying to produce plutonium for a nuclear bomb, Britain’s Daily Telegraph claimed on Tuesday.
The newspaper published images on its website which appear to show steam rising from forced air coolers, suggesting heavywater production at the plant, which has been closed to international inspectors for 18 months.
Heavy water is required in plutonium-producing reactors and that raises alarms that Tehran is seeking a second path to obtain the bomb.
Stuart Ray of consultancy firm McKenzie Intelligence Services told the paper that the images, commissioned from commercial satellite operators, suggested that the heavilyguarded facility was “operational”.
World powers and Iran on Tuesday exchanged offers at talks in Kazakhstan aimed at breaking a decade of deadlock over Tehran’s disputed nuclear drive.
International efforts have so far been concentrated on the Islamic Republic’s attempts to enrich uranium, but the Telegraph insists that the new evidence shows it is developing a “Plan B”.
According to the paper, western governments have known about activity at Arak for some time.
Plutonium is produced as part of the mix in spent nuclear fuel, along with unused uranium.
To make plutonium usable, a reprocessing plant is needed to separate it from the other materials in spent fuel. It can then be embedded into the core of a nuclear weapon.
North Korea has recently developed such technology and experts fear Iran may follow suit, triggering responses from its foes.
“Some think Israel’s red line for military action is before Arak comes online,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, a former US State Department official at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“The option of a military strike on an operating reactor would present enormous complications because of the radiation that would be spread,” he explained in comments published by the Telegraph.
International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors have been barred from the site since August 2011 and Iran has rebuffed appeals for information about the facility.
Tehran denies it is developing nuclear weapons and wants the world to respect what it says is its right to enrich uranium — something current UN sanctions say it cannot do because of its refusal to cooperate with nuclear inspectors.
Iran already has a nuclear power plant in the southern city of Bushehr — built with Russian help — but Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has described atomic weapons as a sin.
Sanctions on Iran are so intricately woven that they will be very hard to untangle, while their impact in swelling Iran’s black economy could undermine regional stability for years to come, the International Crisis Group says in a new report.
Describing the “unintended consequences” of sanctions, the report noted that those with the best access to state resources, including the elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), had been best placed to circumvent the sanctions, while smuggling networks had become an integral part of the economy.
“This does not necessarily harm the regime. To the contrary, it has facilitated a symbiosis between state-affiliated organisations such as the IRGC and transnational smuggling networks,” it said.
“Over time, organised crime networks likely will become more sophisticated, enabling them to survive even after sanctions have been lifted. Iran’s proximity to two countries rating highest on the corruption scale — Iraq and Afghanistan — likely contributes to cross-border criminality, undermining longer-term stability.”
Increasingly tough sanctions imposed on Iran’s oil and banking sectors over its nuclear programme have put enormous pressure on Iran’s economy and forced it to seek innovative ways around them.
The West says Iran’s nuclear activities conceal a drive towards a weapons capability, an allegation Tehran denies.
The ICG’s recommendations are broadly similar to those of many other Iran experts. It calls for a gradual easing of sanctions in return for Iranian concessions on its nuclear programme, accompanied by direct talks between Iran and the United States.
But the report, “Spider Web: The Making and Unmaking of Iran Sanctions”, is unusual in underscoring the difficulties of easing sanctions, despite the limited progress made this week in talks between Iran and major world powers on Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Sanctions have become so extensive and complex, and subject to so many different laws worldwide, that it will be hard to find the flexibility needed for diplomacy, the ICG said. It quoted an unnamed sanctions expert in Washington as saying easing the sanctions was “like dancing in a minefield”.
“There are tripwires everywhere,” the expert said.
As Iran has adapted its economy to sanctions, the introduction of another tier of exchange rates, the use of barter, front companies and the informal “hawala” system for financial transactions have all contributed to the rise of the informal or black economy, the ICG said.
“Crime rates and corruption have been rising; and smuggling is booming as clandestine networks replace commercial ones. Indeed, smuggling networks are becoming an integral part of the shadow economy that reportedly accounts for 21 percent of GDP.”
The growth of the informal economy in the region has been a particular worry in Afghanistan, where the United States has been unable to convince the government in Kabul to crack down on corruption as part of efforts to restore peace before most foreign combat troops are withdrawn at the end of 2014.
In Iran’s other neighbour, Pakistan, the black economy has created space for militant groups to flourish, often funded by money from the Gulf, also routed through the hawala network.
Talks
Iran and world powers agreed Wednesday to hold new talks in March and April over the Islamic republic’s disputed nuclear drive, after negotiations in Kazakhstan which Tehran praised as a possible turning point in the decade-old dis- pute.
There was no sign of a major breakthrough over Iran’s nuclear ambitions in the Kazakh city of Almaty but the agreement on new meetings suggested potential for progress.
The talks saw the five UN Security Council members and Germany offer Iran a softening of non-oil or financial sectorrelated sanctions in exchange for concessions over Tehran’s sensitive uranium enrichment operations.
A senior US official said Iran “appeared to listen carefully to the offer” and its chief negotiator Saeed Jalili issued rare praise for the world powers’ “positive” and “realistic” attitude.