‘President Trump’ scares some in Asia

Diplomats, policy advisers say initial impressions count

Donald Trump’s “isolationist” foreign policy pronouncements are feeding insecurity in some Asian nations fearful of China’s growing power, and risk emboldening nationalists and authoritarians in the region.

The real estate developer, who is very close to securing the Republican nomination for November’s presidential election, has with undiplomatic abandon challenged much of the status quo in US-Asia relations. Overall, his comments have sounded like a death knell for the “pivot to Asia” strategy adopted by President Barack Obama five years ago.

Trump has said US allies like Japan and South Korea should pay more towards their defence, warned he could withdraw US troops from bases in Japan, and mulled whether Japan and South Korea should have their own nuclear arms. This week he told Reuters he is willing to talk to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which would represent a major shift in US policy.

In a television interview on Friday, Trump told MSNBC that while he was open to talks, he “would never go to North Korea.”

Trump has also threatened to rein in China’s big trade surplus with the United States, saying he will threaten to impose heavy duties on Chinese goods. And Trump says he will rip up and then renegotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade pact agreed to by the US, Japan, and 10 other countries in February.

Furthermore, Trump’s call for a ban on Muslims entering the United States risks undermining moderate leaders in Muslim countries like Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia and Bangladesh.

“If he becomes president and adopts his own version of foreign policy, the US will cease to be a Pacific power. That’s the end result,” said Kunihiko Miyake, a former Japanese diplomat, who served in both Beijing and Baghdad.

“It’s not that we would adopt ‘Japan First,’ but if the US leaves, there will be a vacuum and China will try to fill it,” said Miyake, research director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies. “It’s a survival issue for all allies of the United States.”

Trump could, of course, lose the election to the likely Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, who is well known by many Asia policymakers.

And if he is elected he could act much differently in office. But Asian diplomats and policy advisers say that initial impressions count.

Trump’s idea of making Japan and South Korea pay up rather than enjoy a cheaper ride under the US security umbrella sent shudders through Tokyo and Seoul.

Trump reiterated his stance on Friday. “They have a lot of money, both of those nations,” he told MSNBC, pointing to Japan’s auto sales and South Korea’s electronics industry. “We have to get reimbursed.”

In addition, his comments about the possibility of a local nuclear deterrent fanned fears among Asian diplomats that the world could become an even more dangerous place.

“It is here that Trump is most scary,” Lalit Mansingh, a former Indian ambassador to Washington, told Reuters in New Delhi, though he also noted it may be “just election rhetoric.

Japan’s nationalist-led government has already boosted defence spending and has reinterpreted its pacifist constitution to allow its military to come to the aid of allies under attack even if Japan itself if not attacked, a major shift in Japan’s post-war security stance.

“His position is causing anxiety, especially in East Asia,” said a senior lawmaker in Japan’s ruling coalition. “It is really hard to comprehend because conservatives have supported a stronger military presence and more engagement.”

Mansingh said he expects China to test the foreign policy resolve of whoever occupies the White House next, and the South China Sea looms as one of the most likely flashpoints.

Tensions over China’s land-building and installations on islets in the disputed waters flared on Tuesday, when two Chinese warplanes carried out what the Pentagon called an “unsafe” intercept of a US military reconnaissance aircraft.

“They’re building a massive fortress in the South China Sea. They’re not supposed to be doing that,” Trump told Reuters, without saying what he would do about it.