EU prepares for Brexit talks
UK judges may upset govt plans
BRUSSELS, Dec 5, (RTRS): British judges may upset government plans to start Brexit talks soon but whatever the Supreme Court decides after hearings this week, the EU has prepared its side of the unprecedented process.
The timeline, and waiting for march 2017 Theresa May’s formal notification of British withdrawal from the EU treaty under Article 50 is critical. EU counterparts rule out any negotiation before that.
Article 50 sets a two-year countdown to Brexit. Without a deal Britain would be out of the EU but with many loose ends. The deadline can be extended, but only if there is mutual consent.
May pledged two months ago to trigger Article 50 by late March. That would suit EU leaders who want a deal before an EU parliament election in May 2019. But London judges may upset the timetable, which could revive speculation May might use her power to delay notification to gain leverage in Brussels.
Quick, quick, slow - the brexit three-step
Divorce, transition, future. Barring a “cliff edge” falling out, Britain and the EU would agree withdrawal terms by 2019 and an interim deal to avoid needless disruption during negotiation of a new relationship that may take five more years.
While there is a degree of consensus on what must be settled in the withdrawal treaty, which would need only majority backing among EU states, much beyond that is unclear, mainly because it is unclear what Britain will ask for. And any transition deal would depend on having some idea what it was a transition to -- and it would probably have to be agreed by the 27 unanimously.
Divorce, and who gets the house and the kids.
These are the EU’s priorities for the withdrawal treaty:
1. The house, bank accounts and pensions. The British state, businesses and citizens contribute to and receive from the EU budget. Negotiators need to divide the cash. After leaving, London may need to keep paying, for example to cover pensions of EU staff or previously agreed but yet to be disbursed spending. The EU will resist Britain getting a share of the value of the EU’s property -- it didn’t pay extra when it joined, they say.
2. The kids. More than 3 million non-British EU citizens live in Britain and more than a million Britons live elsewhere in the EU. Neither side thinks mass deportations are desirable or likely. However, EU leaders’ hard line against a quick deal on this shows reluctance to give up a politically powerful card.