Macron set to win 1st round, says poll
Putin meets Le Pen
PARIS, March 25, (Agencies): Emmanuel Macron is set to win the first round of the French general election in four weeks time, BVA pollsters said, becoming the latest survey team to put the independent centrist ahead of far-right leader Marine Le Pen for the first time.
The BVA poll did not give a second round prediction, but most that have done so in recent months show Macron easily beating the National Front leader in the second-round run-off due to take place between the top two scorers on May 7.
Macron will get 26 percent of the first round vote, up one percentage point from his showing a week ago, BVA said. It put Le Pen on 25 percent, down one point.
Scandal-hit third-placed candidate Francois Fillon slipped 2.5 percentage points on the week to 17 percent.
That showing follows a TV interview on Thursday night in which the conservative and erstwhile favourite accused President Francois Hollande of leading a smear campaign against him.
The poll was conducted between Wednesday and Friday.
It also showed far left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon gaining ground, up 2 points from a week earlier to 14 percent.
Melenchon was considered by voters to have done well in the first TV debate between the main candidates that took place on Monday evening. Macron was also seen to have performed well in the debate.
Meanwhile, Hollande on Friday vigorously denounced suggestions by the conservative presidential hopeful that Hollande is trying to discredit political rivals behind the scenes by using dirty tricks.
The clash between the Socialist Hollande and the right-wing Francois Fillon threatens to further stain the French presidential campaign, already tainted by corruption scandals and voter frustration with the political establishment.
It has also drawn comparisons to President Donald Trump’s accusations of wiretapping by predecessor Barack Obama, and Trump’s attacks on the US judicial system. Fillon, whose presidential bid is flailing because of corruption charges, told France-2 television Thursday night that he wants an investigation into suggestions in an upcoming book that Hollande intervenes in legal cases for political reasons.
“I am going to accuse the president of the republic,” Fillon said. “If we are looking for a cabinet noir, we found the cabinet noir,” referring to an alleged secret bureau tasked with damaging political rivals.
“Tonight, I solemnly ask that there is an investigation opened on the allegations raised in this book, because this is a scandal of state,” he continued.
Hollande, who is not seeking re-election, responded by saying he “condemns these false allegations with the greatest firmness.” He insisted he had never intervened in any judicial procedure, including the recent investigation into accusations that Fillon employed family members for years for parliamentary jobs they never performed.
Respected
“There is a dignity, a responsibility that needs to be respected. I think that Mr Fillon is beyond that,” Hollande told France-Bleu radio Friday.
Asked if there is a “cabinet noir”, Hollande said, “There is an administration, fortunately, that functions. But it is not for us to meddle in judicial affairs. And my position has always been for the independence of the justice system, the respect for the presumption of innocence, and to never interfere.”
The book, “Welcome to the Place Beauvau” asserts that Hollande profited from a network of allies in France’s intelligence and financial agencies and a “complex mechanism to orchestrate judicial” probes targeting prominent conservatives.
However, its authors say that Fillon oversimplified their findings — and the book itself says “it is impossible to provide formal proof” of such a secret bureau.
Hollande’s predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, was accused of similar secret interference in legal cases for political ends.
Fillon, prime minister during Sarkozy’s presidency, was once the front-runner in France’s two-round presidential election on April 23 and May 7, but has seen his popularity sink since the jobs investigation opened.
In another development, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his preferences in the French presidential election clear Friday by hosting far-right candidate Marine Le Pen at the Kremlin, but analysts are skeptical about Russia’s ability to sway the outcome of the vote.
Embracing Le Pen is part of Russia’s efforts to reach out to nationalist and anti-globalist forces to build up its influence in the West and help overcome the strains in relations with the US and the European Union.
Scrutiny
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential vote has emboldened the Kremlin, even though the ongoing US Congressional scrutiny of his campaign ties with Russia has all but dashed Moscow’s hopes for a quick detente. US intelligence agencies have accused Moscow of hacking to interfere in the 2016 US election.
During Friday’s meeting with National Front leader Le Pen, Putin insisted that Russia has no intention of meddling in the French election and only wants to have a dialogue with a variety of politicians. He praised Le Pen, saying she represents part of a “quickly developing spectrum of European political forces.”
Le Pen’s anti-immigration and anti-EU platform appeals to the Kremlin, which has postured as a defender of conservative national values against Western globalization. She also has called for strong security ties with Moscow to jointly combat radical Islamic groups, promised to work to repeal the EU sanctions on Moscow over its 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and pledged to recognize Crimea as part of Russia if she’s elected.
“I long have spoken for Russia and France to restore their cultural, economic and strategic ties, especially now, when we face a serious terror threat,” Le Pen told Putin on Friday. The meeting was a surprise addition to her meeting with Russian lawmakers, which was announced earlier this week.
A Russia-friendly approach to geopolitics runs in the Le Pen family. Jean-Marie Le Pen, the National Front’s co-founder, his daughter Marine and her niece Marion Marechal-Le Pen have all made numerous visits to Moscow over the years.
Le Pen herself has repeatedly visited Russia, and her party borrowed 9 million euros in 2014 from the small First Czech Russian Bank, but the bank’s license was later revoked.