Trump-Xi meeting watched for clues
BEIJING, April 4, (Agencies): Chinese President Xi Jinping probably won’t give President Donald Trump a round of golf during their first face-to-face meeting this week, but he may find it worthwhile to ensure his American counterpart does not feel like he’s leaving empty-handed.
Some view the informal venue of the summit Thursday and Friday — Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida — as a sign that neither side anticipates important outcomes. Trump, however tweeted last week that he expects “a very difficult” meeting, and on Friday said: “We’re going to get down to some very serious business,” referencing what he believes is China’s negative impact on the US economy, especially manufacturing jobs.
China, for its part, has remained largely sanguine about the event, with Vice Foreign Minister Zheng Zeguang telling reporters that “both sides look forward to a successful meeting so that a correct direction can be set for the growth of bilateral relations.”
Like many nations, China is still grappling with Trump’s mercurial nature after the relative transparency and predictability of the bilateral relationship under Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama.Both during his campaign and after his victory, Trump complained repeatedly over China’s allegedly unfair trade practices, its perceived lack of assistance in reining in North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and its drive to cement control over the South China Sea.
Some analysts believe Xi might be willing to hand Trump a symbolic victory on trade to put a positive spin on the meeting.
“Xi probably can’t accommodate Trump on sovereignty and security issues, but he has a lot of leeway on economics,” said Robert Sutter, a China expert at George Washington University in Washington, DC.
Yet even if Xi is able to offer Trump deliverables, he will still have to deal with “a restless US president valuing unpredictability and seeking advantage for his agenda going forward,” Sutter said.
Deficit
Trump was seen as moving trade even more to the forefront when he signed a pair of executive orders Friday focused on reducing the trade deficit. Coupled together, the orders appeared to be a symbolic shot at China, which accounted for the vast bulk — $347 billion — of last year’s $502 billion trade deficit.
While aides insisted the timing was coincidental, the administration touted the moves as evidence of it taking an aggressive but analytical approach to closing a trade gap that is largely due to the influx of goods from China.
Still, Trump told the Financial Times newspaper that during his meeting with Xi, he doesn’t “want to talk about tariffs yet, perhaps the next time we meet.”
Having suffered a major blow with the failure of health care reform, Trump will be seeking to claim some kind of victory in his encounter with Xi, said June Teufel Dreyer, professor of political science at the University of Miami.
Trump’s comments on trade and other issues “portend some hard bargaining,” Dreyer said. She added, however, that slowing economic growth in China could limit Xi’s options for negotiating on trade. “So the stage is set for a battle royal,” Dreyer said. Meanwhile, China continues to oppose the tough measures demanded of it to address former close ally North Korea, fearing a collapse of the Pyongyang regime would bring a crush of refugees and possibly US and South Korean troops on its border.
Trump told the Financial Times the US is prepared to act alone if China does not take a tougher stand against North Korea’s nuclear program.
“China has great influence over North Korea,” Trump said. “And China will either decide to help us with North Korea, or they won’t. And if they do that will be very good for China, and if they don’t it won’t be good for anyone.”
Prospect
Meanwhile, although worried about the prospect of a trade war, American businesses operating in China nonetheless want President Trump to wring some concessions on market access from China’s leader Xi Jingping when the two meet this week.
Trump warned in a tweet last week the meetings at his Mar-a-Lago resort on Thursday and Friday will be “very difficult” and “American companies must be prepared to look at other alternatives.”
Trump has said he wants US companies to stop investing in China and instead create jobs at home. He has also accused China of manipulating its currency to boost exports.
Critics within US industry have accused China of unfair government subsidies to its companies, and of flooding the US market with cheap products from steel to solar panels, while restricting foreign investment over vast swathes of the world’s second-biggest economy.
But they also worry Trump’s policies on China are not entirely clear, with his trade team still not in place, and may be subject to a ‘grand bargain’ involving other issues such as North Korea.
Trump is set to enter the meeting without several key advisors, including his pick for trade negotiator, Robert Lighthizer who has yet to be confirmed by Congress.
His nominee as ambassador to China, Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, has also yet to be confirmed, while several posts in the US State Department that formulate Asia policy remain unfilled.
“With this in mind, it is hard to imagine that there will be much in the way of concrete accomplishments at this summit, or even that there has been any significant interagency discussion on strategy leading up to it,” said Randal Phillips, Mintz Group’s Beijing-based managing partner for Asia and the former chief CIA representative in China.
Some of the largest US companies have contributed to the billions of dollars of foreign direct investment that have poured into China over the past two decades, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.
They include tech companies like Apple, which makes much of its iPhone in China, automakers such as General Motors and Ford, heavy machinery firms like Caterpillar, retailers like Starbucks and makers of shaving foam and detergent, like Procter & Gamble.