Cleric win tests Iran in Iraq
BAGHDAD, May 15, (Agencies): Populist Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr on Tuesday eyed a broad coalition after appearing to deal a blow to both Iranian and American influence with a shock election triumph that has upended Iraqi politics.
Counting was still ongoing three days after the first parliamentary poll since the defeat of the Islamic State group, but the fiery Shiite preacher’s grouping was in the lead with 16 of 18 provinces tallied.
Victory for the veteran nationalist’s Marching Towards Reform alliance with Iraq’s communists — pitched an anti-corruption outsider force — would be a slap in the face for Iraq’s widely reviled ruling establishment.
Sadr — who has ruled himself out of becoming prime minister — looks likely to be the key powerbroker and has already mooted a technocrat government of some dozen parties that bridge sectarian divides.
But with his group set to be far from a majority in parliament, wrangling over any potential coalition should take months — and there remain major obstacles ahead that could thwart Sadr’s ambitions.
Already pressured by the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Iran faces a major test in managing al-Sadr, a formidable opponent who beat Tehran’s longtime allies to achieve a shock victory in Iraq’s parliamentary election.
But if Tehran overplays its hand by squeezing Sadr out of a coalition government dominated by its allies, it risks losing influence by provoking conflict between Iranianbacked Shi’ites and those loyal to Sadr.
Populist Sadr swept Iraq’s parliamentary election by tapping into growing public resentment directed at Iran and what some voters say is a corrupt political elite that has failed to help the poor.
But Iran is unlikely to relinquish influence in Iraq, its most important ally in the
Middle East, and will push for a coalition that will preserve its interests.
“Iran will do everything in its power to remain strong in Iraq and to apply pressure,” said independent Iraqi analyst Wathiq alHashimi. “It’s a very critical situation.”
Before the election, Iran publicly stated it would not allow Sadr’s bloc - an unlikely alliance of Shi’tes, communists and other secular groups - to govern.
For his part, Sadr has made clear he is unwilling to compromise with Iran by forming a coalition with its main allies, Hadi al-Amiri, leader of the Badr paramilitary group and perhaps the most powerful man in Iraq, and former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki.
After the election results were announced, he said he would only cooperate with Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, Kurds and Sunnis.
Iran has manipulated Iraqi politics in its favour in the past, notably following the 2003 US-led invasion that overthrew its enemy, Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein.
In the 2010 election, Vice President Ayad Allawi’s group won the largest number of seats, albeit with a narrow margin, but he was prevented from becoming prime minister. He blamed Tehran, which manoeuvred Maliki into power.
On that occasion, Tehran overplayed its hand. Critics said Maliki pursued a sectarian agenda which alienated Sunnis and created conditions which enabled Islamic State to seize one third of the country.
Blocking Sadr would also carry grave risks. His campaign resonated with millions of impoverished Iraqis, especially in his strongholds in Baghdad and Shi’ite heartlands. Sadr derives legitimacy from a dynasty of Shi’ite religious scholars.
He made his name leading two violent uprisings against US troops following the invasion in 2003, while in 2016, he mobilised tens of thousands of supporters to storm Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone.
Lawmaker Dhiaa al-Asadi, who heads Sadr’s bloc in the outgoing parliament, said they would seek alliances to counter any Iranian interference in attempts to form a government, and ruled out deals with Amiri or Maliki.