IEA lowers growth forecast in oil demand for 2018, ’19
‘World oil market adequately supplied for now’
PARIS, Oct 13, (Agencies): The International Energy Agency on Friday revised lower its growth forecast in global oil demand for 2018 and 2019, citing high prices, trade tensions and a less favourable economic outlook.
The estimated growth in global demand has been reduced by 110,000 barrels per day for each of the two years. This growth is expected to be 1.3 million bpd this year, then 1.4 million bpd in 2019.
“This is due to a weaker economic outlook, trade concerns, higher oil prices and a revision to Chinese data,” the IEA said in a statement in its monthly oil report.
“Expensive energy is back, with oil, gas and coal trading at multi-year highs, and it poses a threat to economic growth,” particularly for emerging economies, it warned.
“The global economy is also at risk from trade disputes,” it added. “Our revised demand outlook reflects these concerns.”
The IAE warned that recent peaks in supply and demand have put a strain on spare capacity.
“This strain could be with us for some time and it will likely be accompanied by higher prices, however much we regret them and their potential negative impact on the global economy.”
Oil markets look “adequately supplied for now” after a big production increase in the last six months, but the industry is coming under strain, the West’s energy watchdog said on Friday.
The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that the world’s spare oil production capacity was down to 2 percent of global demand, with further falls likely.
“This strain could be with us for some time and it will likely be accompanied by higher prices, however much we regret them and their potential negative impact on the global economy,” the Paris-based organisation said.
Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other exporters such as Russia agreed in June to raise output as the market appeared increasingly tight.