Experts ponder causes of New York’s ‘breathtaking’ outbreak

Coronavirus could hit obesity, diabetes patients

YORK, March 26, (AP): How did the coronavirus outbreak get so bad in New York?

It’s likely a combination of its size, how crowded it is, its international popularity and other factors.

New York accounted for roughly half the US cases, as of Wednesday. Federal officials say the rate of people being sickened is four to five times greater in New York than other parts of the country.

“We have 10 times the problem that the next state has” when counting numbers of cases, said New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, during a press briefing on Wednesday.

“It really is breathtaking, when you think about it,” he added.

Scientists expect the number of new infections, hospitalizations and deaths in the New York area to increase over the coming weeks. But they also believe that social distancing and staying inside are slowing the spread. It just may take time to see, because it can take days for an infected person to develop symptoms.

It’s a bit like in astronomy, “when the light you are seeing from a star is in the past,” said Troy Tassier, an economist at Fordham University.

Public health experts pointed to the size and density of the nation’s biggest city as a likely factor in its coronavirus caseload. Cuomo noted New York draws travelers from around the globe, including areas where outbreaks erupted earlier, like China and Italy.

“I have no doubt that the virus was here much earlier than it was in any other state, because those people come here first,” he said. (If that’s true, no one realized it: The first reported case in the US was in Washington state, weeks before New York’s.)

Response

Some also noted the state’s big push to test people – more than 12,000 on Monday alone, according to figures the governor’s office released Wednesday.

Dr Deborah Birx, who is coordinating the federal coronavirus response, on Tuesday suggested: “Part of it is the spread that may have happened on metal surfaces, like in the subway and people that were in the subway.”

Whatever the reason, the size of the problem in New York is staggering.

If it were its own country, New York state would rank fifth in the number of cases, after China, Italy, Spain and Germany and about tied with the rest of the US.

The state has more than 30,000 cases and close to 300 deaths, most of them in New York City. Germany – with four times New York’s population - has just over 37,000 cases and more than 200 deaths.

Aubree Gordon, an associate professor at University of Michigan’s school of public health, said restrictions on residents will work, eventually. “From the time that a measure is put into place, it will take at least a few weeks before we see an impact in the number of new daily cases,” Gordon said.

But Gordon suggested New York would have made a bigger dent if it had acted earlier.

A red cross volunteer checks the temperature of a homeless man, in Rome on March 25. The new coronavirus causes mild or moderate symptoms for

most people, but for some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness or death. (AP)

Federal officials deserve more blame than New York leaders, argued Dr. Brian Strom, a disease researcher and the chancellor of Rutgers Biomedical and Health Sciences.

He alluded to conflicting messages by different federal leaders about how serious a threat the virus posed, not to mention other problems like delays in virus testing. That left localities to take acNEW tion, “and unfortunately, that was on the late side and undercut” by federal messages, Strom said.

It can be difficult to motivate government leaders and the public to take big steps against a disease before the problem hits threatening levels, said Dr Mark Dworkin, who teaches about outbreak investigations at the University of Illinois at Chicago.

“It’s very hard to get people to believe or trust that when the hospitals aren’t full and there’s very few cases,” he said. “You’re up against a lot to really make something happen early. You’re up against a lot of barriers to really doing something optimally.”

Also: MEXICO CITY:

The coronavirus pandemic could be especially deadly in Mexico because of the country’s high rates of obesity and diabetes, a coalition of consumer and health advocacy groups said Wednesday.

The Alliance for Food Health said in a report that four of the first five coronavirus deaths in Mexico involved people with diabetes.

Mexico has the highest diabetes rate in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and one of the highest obesity rates, with 72.5% of adults overweight or obese.

a researcher for Consumer Power, said Mexico’s 11 million diabetes cases “make this scenario a petri dish for COVID-19,” the disease caused by the virus.

Experts say underlying conditions like high blood pressure, heart disease, diabetes and obesity can make health outcomes far worse for coronavirus patients. For most people, the virus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever and cough that clear up in two to three weeks.

a researcher at the National Institute for Medical Sciences and Nutrition, said, “The majority of the deaths that will occur in Mexico during the current epidemic will be associated with the serious problem of obesity.

TOKYO:

South Korea reported 104 new cases of the novel coronavirus Thursday, bringing the nation’s total infections to 9,241 amid a jump in imported cases, according to Yonhap News Agency.

The death toll rose by five to 131, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said.

The total number of imported cases jumped by 30 to 131, while Seoul reported 13 additional cases, the public health agency said.

Amid a steady rise in imported virus cases, South Korea has enforced a two-week quarantine period and virus tests for all long-term arrivals from Europe, regardless of symptoms, in an effort to contain imported virus cases. From Friday, passengers from the US for long-term stay will be required to self-isolate at home for two weeks.

Earlier in the day, Prime Minister said the government will keep a no-tolerance stance toward those who violate self-isolation rules, warning that Korean nationals will face lawsuits and foreigners will be expelled.