But risks loom

UK continued its recovery in July

LONDON, Sept 12, (AP): The British economy recouped further lost ground during July after a swath of coronavirus restrictions on businesses were lifted, official figures showed Friday. However, it still has to make up around half the output lost at the peak of the lockdown and now faces renewed risks related to Brexit.

The Office for National Statistics said the British economy grew by a monthly rate of 6.6% as many sectors started reopening after months of being idle during the lockdown. The hospitality sector, which includes, hotels, pubs and restaurants, reopened at the start of July, for example.

Other sectors, such as manufacturing and house-building also continued their recovery, though industrial production and construction remain below their pre-crisis levels.

July’s increase means that the British economy has now grown for three months in a row in the wake of April’s dramatic 20% slide. Overall, the British economy remains 11.7% smaller than it was in February before the full economic impact of the pandemic was felt.

Economists think the pace of the recovery will moderate following of a recent pick-up in new virus infections that has seen the re-imposition of lockdown restrictions on social gatherings, for example.

The looming end of a salary-support scheme and heightened uncertainties over a trade deal between the U.K. and the European Union are also expected to weigh on growth and, as a result, most economists think the economy will end the year around 8% smaller than it was before the pandemic.

“We’re likely to see the pace of expansion slow in August and September and stall as we head into the winter as the ‘mechanical rebound’ ends and unemployment rises,” said James Smith, developed markets economist at ING.

Concerns over a post-Brexit deal have become a particular concern over the past few days amid a souring in relations between the U.K. and the EU.

The announcement from the British government that new legislation breaches elements of the withdrawal agreement, which allowed for the country’s smooth departure from the bloc at the start of the year, has prompted a furious reaction from the EU and raised the prospect of an imminent collapse in the talks.

Even before the current standoff, the trade discussions had made very little progress, with the two sides seemingly wide apart on several issues, notably on business regulations, the extent to which the U.K. can support certain industries and over the EU fishing fleet’s access to British waters.

The EU has been particularly insistent on ensuring that British-based businesses don’t have an unfair advantage as a result of laxer social, environmental or subsidy rules in the U.K.

British businesses are worried about a collapse in the talks that could see tariffs and other impediments slapped on trade with the EU at the start of next year.

Most economists think that the costs of a “no-deal” outcome would fall disproportionately on the UK, as trade with EU accounts for around half the total.

Supporters of Brexit have said that one of the benefits of unshackling the British economy from the EU is that it allows the country to sign trade deals with whoever it wishes - the EU negotiates trade deals on behalf of all its members.

On Friday, the British government said it had secured a free trade agreement in principle with Japan, its first major deal as an independent trading nation.

Though details of the agreement are thin, the government said the UK-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement “goes far beyond” the existing deal between the EU and Japan and will increase commerce with Japan by around 15 billion pounds ($19 billion).

Skeptics say no amount of trade deals can mitigate for the losses that may accrue in the event of a ‘nodeal’ outcome with the EU.