‘US one of most important Gulf allies, we should not cut dependence on it’
“THE Saudi-Iranian agreement, which was announced on March 10 in the Chinese capital, was not a surprise to observers of Gulf affairs,” columnist Dr Muhammad Hussein Al-Dalal wrote for Al-Qabas daily.
“The Saudi and Iranian sides had previously held several rounds of intermittent negotiations in the Sultanate of Oman and Iraq between 2021-2022, but the surprise was the Chinese sponsorship of those negotiations.
“It is known about China that it does not interfere politically in areas far from its lands, and it is usually satisfied with strengthening its trade relations, which is the main engine of Chinese diplomacy.
“China’s sponsorship of negotiations between two great opponents, between whom there is a fierce cold war that extends for many years, and in an important strategic region for the world, this is the great change in Chinese foreign policy.
“This is evidence of a change in the balance of power in the global system from a monolithic power controlled by the United States of America to a multi-power system in which China and Russia have a major role in shaping its policies.
“Why China in particular? Whenever we remember Trump’s statements in the midst of the tanker crisis in 2019 and beyond, when he indicated that there are countries that have interests in the region, specifically in oil, and they must protect their interests, the Gulf or its commercial interests to intervene diplomatically in order to achieve stability in the region and ensure the continuity of its interests.
“Will the agreement succeed or not? Despite our knowledge of Iran’s usually elusive behavior, China has very large pressure cards on Iran, which it knows that without China and the Russians it will not be able to resist American and Western pressure in general.
“Therefore, we can see rounds of negotiation to resolve regional crises in which Iran is a party, such as the Yemeni crisis, Iraqi, Syrian, and Lebanese.
But there is no Chinese magic wand that quickly achieves these goals.
“Conclusion: China will be one of the international players in the Middle East region, which enhances competition between it and the United States of America, improves the Gulf negotiating position, and does not make them prey to American blackmail, but the United States will remain.
“The United States is one of the most important allies of the Gulf, and we should not disengage or reduce dependence on it.
“As for Iran, this positive interaction and agreement may be a temporary tactic in light of a local political and economic crisis and US-European sanctions, and it will disappear after several years, and the important thing is that we may enjoy some calm in the Gulf against the background of the Saudi-Iranian agreement.”
Also:
“I will analyze the dimensions of the Saudi-Iranian agreement away from the narrative of their historical relations whose general context is characterized by tension, and also away from the ideological aspect of it, because the agreement is isolated from all of that and is based on tactical and strategic calculations linked to the objective circumstance of the international situation and its effects on all parties to the agreement, and the effects of the tripartite agreement in return,” columnist Abdullah Khaled Al-Ghanem wrote for Al-Anba daily.
“First: We will examine together the objective context that preceded the announcement of the tripartite agreement (Saudi Arabia - Iran - China).
“1- The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been dealing with an extreme left-wing US administration since Joe Biden’s ascension to run the White House, and throughout the three years Biden did not send an ambassador to the Kingdom, as he repeatedly tried to abuse its leadership, as well as tried to influence its security interests, especially in the issue of armaments, which created US security pressure, irresponsibly on one of the most important allies of the United States in the world.
“The most prominent indicator of this pressure is the decline in the Kingdom’s military rating in only 3 years, according to the “Global Fire Power” report, as its military ranking fell from the seventeenth place at the level of the world’s armies the moment Biden took charge of the White House, to the twentysecond position in early 2023, and with the fact that the US administration wants to repair its relationship with the Kingdom, especially after the outbreak of the Ukraine war and the high impact and importance of energy production policies on the international security equation for the United States, the Kingdom refused in return.
“Only ‘attempts courted by the US administration’ to make the international alignment required by the United States in a way that enhances America’s international security position except within the framework of specific conditions, which of course would mean achieving it.
“Saudi Arabia won very large military, technical and strategic gains, and it can be considered an acceptable price for the Saudi bias in favor of the western axis that the United States demands.
“2 - Iran is exposed to great internal pressure, one of the most important reasons for which is the deterioration of the quality of life inside Iran as a result of US sanctions and the pressure of this on the Iranian people in a way that made them explode over the issue of the veil as one of the symbols associated with the Iranian Islamic regime, and on the other hand there are indications of the intention of international forces to launch an air war against Iran for destroying 3,000 Iranian military and nuclear targets based on a statement by French intelligence published on Radio France after the meeting of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with French President Emmanuel Macron.
“In the same context, Iran stands on the threshold of possessing nuclear weapons, through its need for twelve days. Only to manufacture its nuclear weapon from the moment it intends to manufacture the weapon, according to the US Pentagon.
“3 - China faces difficulties in practically entering into security partnerships with the GCC countries, due to the spread of US military bases in most of the GCC countries first, and secondly to the dependence of the GCC countries on Western weapons due to the nature of most of the main Gulf military structures, which makes the process of introducing Chinese weapons into the main military field sectors a matter that needs several years from a technical point of view, and as long as this security situation imposes itself, the space for international maneuvering between East and West for the GCC countries is still limited and unsatisfactory for the Chinese side.
“Therefore China found another way to enter as a party directly affecting the equation of the security of the GCC countries by restricting the activities of their main regional security threat, Iran, and ensuring that they do not threaten the GCC countries in general and Saudi Arabia in particular, as it is the pillar of the GCC tent.
“Thus, this Chinese role is the largest entry point that accelerates China’s security penetration into the regional security equation for the GCC countries. This expands the space for international maneuvering available to the GCC countries in a way that enables them to go more towards China safely.
“Second: What are the tactical and strategic gains for the parties to the agreement once the agreement is announced?
“1 - The Kingdom’s tactical and strategic gains: ‘The mere announcement of the agreement, the entry of China into it, and the declaration of the first regional threat (Iran) to stop its security threats to Saudi Arabia represented by arming the Houthis in the first degree, the security and strategic pressure will be mainly on the United States internationally and Israel regionally, and this will serve the Saudi negotiating position with the American side is very significant and motivates the United States to make concessions that may amount to accepting a number of Saudi conditions to gain the kingdom’s alignment with it again, or at least to slow down the rapid pace of the kingdom’s approach to the People’s Republic of China, especially in the field of security cooperation.
“’In the event of a Western air war against Iran, the agreement spares the Kingdom in particular and the GCC countries in general from Iranian reactions, considering us: a region hosting American bases from the lands of some of whose countries American fighters launched, which would have targeted the banks of nuclear and military targets in the Iranian depth in the event of the outbreak of an air war scenario, meaning that the agreement now, before the outbreak of the war scenario, will distance both Iran and the GCC countries from the fields that open the doors to the possibility of a long and exhausting Gulf-Iranian war scenario for both sides in a way that only other regional powers such as Israel or international powers such as the United States benefit from, because the outbreak of a Gulf-Iranian war at this time will push us, as the Gulf Cooperation Council, to return completely to the American side and abandon all our international maneuvers towards China, because the only country that will be able to provide us immediately at this time with all our military and defense needs during the outbreak of this war is the United States, because naturally our military infrastructure is mostly Western or American, and the transition to eastern or Chinese weapons will require a longer time that we will not have during the outbreak of war operations at this time, God forbid.’
“In the event that Iran adheres to the contents of the agreement, which is likely to happen in the near term at least, then its commitment will cast a positive shadow on the Yemeni situation because of Iran’s influence on the Houthis, which it gains as a result of the arms shipments that it has been supplying it with since the beginning of the war.
“Therefore, one of the most important effects of the agreement is to create a positive situation that resolves the resolution of the Yemen file in a way that is very beneficial to the Saudi regional, international and security position.
“There are also a number of other tactical and strategic gains achieved by the Saudi side as a result of the announcement of this agreement, but I preferred to identify these points for their integration in one logical pattern when we see the gains of the rest of the parties to the agreement, which makes us likely that this pattern is the objective basis for the birth of this agreement.”