Fantasy of Destination: One reason of flight crashes

Heartiest condolences to our brothers in the UAE and officials of the new successful airline, Flydubai on the tragic crash of their plane at the Russian airport of Rostov.

Though it is too early to talk about the reasons of the crash, it is internationally normal to discuss possibilities that might be either confirmed or denied through black box analysis and investigations. One should also take into consideration that a plane’s crash does not necessarily mean that a certain airline is not safe, nor does having no plane crash incidents mean the opposite. What actually matters, according to specialists, is the lack or presence of enough training care and attention to safety precautions followed by an airline.

‘Follow the Leader’ is an expression that has caused deadly crashes. The expression means that a certain pilot might be tempted to follow another plane that managed to land just before him in an airport experiencing stormy weather. He would then try to land and his plane might crash due to difference in his plane’s capabilities compared to the first one, in his own skills compared to the other pilot or even in the storm’s severity that might get worse right after the first pilot lands. It is obvious that this theory was not the reason of the Russian airport’s crash because at the time when the Cypriot pilot of the Flydubai plane was circling above the airport, two other flights arriving from Moscow tried to land and failed, and instead headed to a nearby airport till the storm rested.

‘Fantasy of Destination ’or the temptation of reaching the destination for some personal reasons might be involved with some specific pilots of all the ones flying over a certain airport. It has caused several crashes because a certain pilot might insist on landing during storms despite the wind and lack of visibility for personal reason he would not wish to postpone. It might also be one of the reasons for this particular crash. That flight was the last for the pilot with Flydubai before he joined an Irish airline in Dublin. So, flying to a nearby airport and the delay this would cause might affect the crew’s recommended maximum working hours and, thus, they would have to stay overnight in the third airport and reschedule the appointments of the pilot. But he did not know that insisting on landing at Rostov airport would lead to the crash. This might have been one of the reasons why he insisted on landing instead of heading to a nearby airport like others did.

Back to the tragic crash, there are many possible reasons for such crashes including pilot’s fatigue. The crash took place at night and almost before dawn after a tiring night flying over a strange airport for over two hours during a storm and Wind Shear; a sudden shift in wind direction from ‘Head Wind’, which is preferable on landings, to ‘Tail Wind’ that can violently push a plane towards the ground in what is technically known as ‘Down Burst’, which has caused so many crashes similar to the one in question.

The 3M rule, that refers to pilots, plane and weather conditions, is still the main reason for so many deadly crashes. The three malfunctions may sometimes happen all together in a tragic moment like, for instance, having an onboard fire or malfunction, a human error committed by the pilot when making decisions either to land or fly to nearby airports, not taking over the plane for the co-pilot, lack of proper skills to deal with storms or emergencies and dangerous weather conditions over the destination airport.

The black box will soon reveal who was actually flying the plane during the crash because in such cases and during wind shear at any altitude, the pilot should take over. The black box will also reveal whether a malfunction took place, or whoever was flying the plane made a mistake such as delay in using full engine power to immediately ascend to higher altitudes above the storm, as standards procedures recommend, or even other dangerous technical problems were involved.

One of the possible reasons might be flying for too long above the airport consuming the fuel that could have been used to fly to a nearby airport and, thus, the pilot had to land at Rostov despite the weather.