Saudi king in Russia with oil, investment, Syria on agenda
Iran, Turkey vow to halt Iraqi Kurds’ secession
RIYADH/MOSCOW/ANKARA/TEHRAN: The leaders of Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s biggest oil exporters, are expected to discuss cooperation on oil production and differences over Syria and Iran today during the first visit to Moscow by a reigning Saudi monarch. King Salman arrived in Moscow late Wednesday. A slew of investment deals, including on a liquefied natural gas project and petrochemical plants, could also be signed during King Salman’s trip and plans for a $1-billion fund to invest in energy projects are likely to be finalized.
The visit, including talks in the Kremlin with President Vladimir Putin, reflects a rapid deepening of ties between Russia and Saudi Arabia, driven by a mutual need to stem a drop in global oil prices. The two countries helped secure a deal between OPEC and other producers to cut output until the end of March 2018, but back competing sides in Syria’s civil war. Riyadh supports rebels fighting President Bashar Al-Assad’s forces while Russian troops and Iranian militias have sided with Assad.
This leaves Moscow aligned with Saudi Arabia’s archrival Iran, whose influence Riyadh fears is growing in the region. “The Saudis want help on Iran, and Russia wants trade and investment,” said Mark N Katz, an expert on Russia-Middle East relations at George Mason University. “In the Saudi mind, they’re definitely linked and the Russians are going to try to separate these.” Billboards have been erected on the road from the airport to central Moscow welcoming King Salman in Arabic and Russian. His son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, visited in May just before his elevation to crown prince, and in 2015 the countries’ sovereign wealth funds agreed to $10 billion in investments. A business forum will include speeches by top ministers and the heads of stateowned energy giants Saudi Aramco and Gazprom as well as a presentation of Saudi’s Vision 2030 reform program, which aims to end the kingdom’s dependence on oil. Moscow sees the trip as a payoff for its two-year-old intervention in Syria and recognition of its growing Middle East clout.
“Even 12 months ago, Riyadh was highly critical of Russia’s involvement in Syria and the relationship looked as frozen as ever,” said Chris Weafer, senior partner at economic and political consultancy Macro-Advisory Ltd. “Today that has changed 180 degrees. Both countries now see political and economic advantages from a closer, albeit pragmatic, relationship. This visit is intended to make sure it stays on track.”
Discussion of Syria is likely to focus on what the country will look like once Islamic State is defeated, Assad’s future, what peace talks between Saudi-backed opposition activists and Damascus can achieve and the creation of new de-escalation zones. The king may also seek assurances that Iran will not have a permanent role in Syria. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow hoped the king’s trip would breathe life into a relationship with huge potential and was interested in maintaining dialogue with Riyadh “about the Middle East and Syria in particular”.
Any discussion of the oil market and the efficacy of moves to prop up prices by cutting supply will be closely watched. The oil price fall in the last three years has overstretched both producers’ budgets, making an extension of joint cuts beyond March 2018 more likely. Moscow said last month it had discussed with Riyadh extending the deal but no specific decisions had been made ahead of a Nov 30 producers’ meeting in Vienna.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview broadcast on Monday that the planned $1-billion fund to invest in energy projects was part of efforts to strengthen cooperation in oil, gas, electricity, renewable energy and other projects. Russian firms are also discussing deals with Saudi Aramco, such as providing drilling services in Saudi Arabia, and Russian oil giant Rosneft’s interest in crude trading, he added.
Separately, the presidents of Iran and Turkey vowed during talks in Tehran yesterday to work closely together to prevent the disintegration of Iraq and Syria and to oppose the Iraqi Kurds’ drive for independence. Shiite Iran and mainly Sunni Turkey, a NATO member, have traditionally had cool relations but both have been alarmed by the Iraqi Kurds’ vote for independence in a Sept 25 referendum, fearing it will stoke separatism among their own Kurdish populations.
“We want security and stability in the Middle East ... The independence referendum in Iraq’s Kurdistan is a sectarian plot by foreign countries and is rejected by Tehran and Ankara,” Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said, according to state TV. “We will not accept a change of borders under any circumstances.”
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei also said after meeting Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan that the two countries should prevent Iraq’s Kurdistan from declaring independence, state TV reported. “Turkey and Iran must take necessary measures against the vote,” Khamenei was quoted as saying. He also said the United States and foreign powers planned to create a new Israel in the Middle East by supporting the vote in Kurdistan, according to state TV. “America and Israel benefit from the vote ... They want to create a new Israel in the region ... The Iraqi Kurdish secession vote is an act of betrayal toward the entire region,” Khamenei said.
Iran and Turkey have already threatened to join Baghdad in imposing economic sanctions on Iraqi Kurdistan and have launched joint military exercises with Iraqi troops on their borders with the separatist region. Erdogan, who is on a one-day trip to Tehran, said Ankara was considering taking further measures against Iraqi Kurdistan. “We have already said we don’t recognize the referendum in northern Iraq... We have taken some measures already with Iran and the Iraqi central government, but stronger steps will be taken,” he said. Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan region announced on Tuesday it was calling presidential and parliamentary elections for Nov 1. Baghdad has responded with further punitive measures. Iraq’s central government, its neighbors and Western powers fear the vote in favor of secession could spark another, wider conflict in the Middle East region to add to the war in Syria, and fear it could derail the fight against Islamic State. The Kurds are the region’s fourth largest ethnic group, spread across Iran, Turkey, Syria and Iraq, all of which oppose any moves towards a Kurdish state.
Erdogan, whose security forces are embroiled in a decades-long battle with Kurdish separatists in southeast Turkey, repeated in Tehran his accusation that Israel was behind the Iraqi Kurds’ referendum. “There is no country other than Israel that recognizes it. A referendum which was conducted by sitting side by side with Mossad has no legitimacy,” he said, referring to the Israeli intelligence agency. Israel has denied Turkey’s previous claims of involvement in the vote, but has welcomed the Kurds’ vote for independence.
Rouhani also said yesterday that Tehran and Ankara planned to expand their economic ties. “Turkey will import more gas from Iran... Meetings will be held next week to discuss the details,” he said. Rouhani and Erdogan underlined the goal of tripling two-way trade to $30 billion in 2018, to be processed in their own currencies, easing the pressure on Iran whose banking sector is subject to US sanctions. The atmosphere for the talks was a far cry from Erdogan’s last visit to Tehran in April 2015 when a speech he gave just days before sparked demands from some Iranian lawmakers for it to be cancelled. The Turkish leader had accused Iran at the time of seeking to “dominate the region” and demanded that it withdraw its troops from Iraq and Syria. — Agencies
Moscow sees trip as recognition of its growing Middle East clout.