US durable goods orders gain pace in September
New home sales surge 18.9% in September
WASHINGTON: New orders for key US-made capital goods increased more than expected in September and shipments rose for an eighth straight month, pointing to robust business spending that should help to mitigate the impact on the economy from the hurricanes.
Other data yesterday showed new single-family home sales vaulting to a near 10-year high last month. The signs of strong business investment on equipment in the third quarter and a pick-up in the housing market supported views the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in December.
“The Fed can continue to remove its monetary stimulus confident that investment is heating back up after the downturn in orders and shipments a couple of years ago,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “Businesses don’t invest in the future if they don’t think consumers will be there to buy their goods and services.”
The Commerce Department said non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 1.3 percent last month after an upwardly revised 1.3 percent increase in August. Economists had forecast orders of these so-called core capital goods increasing 0.5 percent last month after a previously reported 1.1 percent jump in August. Core capital goods orders advanced 3.8 percent year-on-year.
Shipments of core capital goods climbed 0.7 percent after soaring 1.2 percent in August. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government’s gross domestic product measurement. Core capital goods shipments have now increased for eight straight months. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies after the data as investors anticipated an interest rate hike in December, which would be the third this year.
Prices for US Treasuries fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rising to a seven-month high. US stocks were trading slightly lower.
Business spending on equipment is expected to have contributed to economic growth in the third quarter, which could help to cushion the blow on GDP from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
Economists estimate that Harvey and Irma, which devastated parts of Texas and Florida, sliced off as much as one percentage point from thirdquarter GDP.
Shipments of core capital goods climb
Upside risk
The government is due to publish its advance GDP estimate for the July-September quarter tomorrow. According to a Reuters survey of economists, the economy probably grew at a 2.5 percent annualized rate in the July-September period, slowing down from the second quarter’s brisk 3.1 percent pace.
But the Commerce Department report, which also showed inventories increasing 0.6 percent in September, the largest gain since June 2015, suggested third-quarter economic growth could surprise on the upside. Inventory accumulation is expected to have provided a boost to growth in the third quarter. The economy’s improving outlook was also enhanced by a second report from the Commerce Department showing new home sales surged 18.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 667,000 units last month amid an increase in all four regions. That was the highest level since October 2007 and the percent gain was the largest since January 1992.
Strong business spending on equipment is helping to support manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the US economy.
Last month, orders for computers and electronic products increased 1.6 percent after surging 1.8 percent in August. There were also increases in orders for fabricated metal products. But orders for machinery, primary metals and electrical equipment, appliances and components fell.
Overall orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, shot up 2.2 percent last month amid a 5.1 percent rise in demand for transportation equipment. Durable goods orders increased 2.0 percent in August. Boeing reported on its website that it received 72 aircraft orders in September, up from 33 the prior month. Orders for motor vehicles and parts edged up 0.1 percent last month after accelerating 2.8 percent in August. Unfilled orders for durable goods increased 0.2 percent in September after being unchanged the prior month. — Reuters