Chad keeps wary eye on shifting rebel alliances

N’DJAMENA: Chad’s government is keeping a wary eye on developments along its Libyan and Sudanese borders where rebel groups are trying to pull together into a political formation to challenge President Idriss Deby. On the face of it, N’Djamena appears to be unconcerned, with the defense minister’s office telling AFP troops are continuing to patrol the borders without any move to send in reinforcements. But behind the scenes, they are worried.

“In order not to panic the population, the government is pretending. But everyone in Chad knows that the situation is not good,” an official admitted, speaking on condition of anonymity. Deby seized power in a 1990 military coup and has kept on top of a rebellion in the east, notably foiling a bid to overthrow him in February 2008 when rebel troops reached the outskirts of N’Djamena.

That failed attempt was led by the Union of Forces of Resistance (UFR), a rebel coalition which has since been forced to operate on the fringes of Chad’s northern and eastern borders. The UFR is led by Timane Erdimi, a nephew of the president who lives in Qatar, a country with which N’Djamena broke diplomatic relations last August for “an attempt to destabilize Chad” via its northern neighbor Libya. Weaker now than it was in 2008, UFR is currently unable to be an effective fighting force, according to a source close to the group.

Forming a political force?

But it is factions allied to the UFR that are causing the most concern, sources say. The UFR “seems to have regained strength and is threatening to resume hostilities,” warned an article in the local press in October. Speaking to AFP, Youssouf Hamid, the UFR’s spokesman in exile who is based in Europe, said the group wanted “to gather the (armed) opposition into a political platform” in order to hold “internationally-monitored political talks with the Deby regime.”

“The goal is to gather as wide a group as possible” to show that “it is Deby who is forcing people to wage war,” he said. But there are other UFR-allied rebel groups based in southern Libya and Darfur, in neighboring western Sudan, who are also trying to form alliances, AFP has learned. Chad, a former French colony and one of the world’s poorest nations, has vast desert borders, including with Libya and Sudan, which are notoriously difficult to police and militants can often roam between countries undetected.