Syria’s Idlib: From ‘bloodbath’ fears to buffer deal
BEIRUT: A horseshoe-shaped zone around Syria’s opposition stronghold of Idlib is expected to avert a massive government assault on the area, which would have put several million people at risk. The U-shaped buffer, agreed by regime ally Russia and rebel-backer Turkey, will separate opposition and government forces and is meant to be free of both heavy weapons and jihadists by October 15.
‘Bloodbath’
In May, UN envoy Staffan de Mistura warned that a regime assault on Idlib would be “six times” more destructive than the battle to recapture Eastern Ghouta, a rebel stronghold near Damascus. Ghouta was retaken by President Bashar al-Assad’s forces in April after an offensive in which more than 1,700 civilians were killed, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Assad, backed by Russian air strikes, then set his sights on Idlib, the largest piece of territory still held by Syria’s beleaguered rebels.
For weeks, regime forces massed on the edges of the province, stepping up bombardment since early September and dropping leaflets calling on residents to surrender. That prompted a chorus of international warnings against an offensive. US President Donald Trump cautioned that “the world is watching,” as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he feared a “bloodbath”. On September 10, the United Nations warned that an assault could create the century’s “worst humanitarian catastrophe”. A day later its Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged that Idlib “must not be transformed into a bloodbath”.
Russia-Turkey accord
On September 17, Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, meeting in Russia’s Black Sea resort of Sochi, agreed to create a 15-20 kilometer buffer zone ringing Idlib. According to the deal, the zone would separate rebel and regime zones under the supervision of the two sponsor countries. The buffer would include parts of Idlib province and the neighboring regions of Aleppo, Hama and Latakia. All factions in the planned demilitarized area must hand over their heavy weapons by October 10, and radical groups must withdraw by October 15, according to the agreement.
Rebel disharmony
On September 23, the National Liberation Front (NLF), a powerful Turkish-backed rebel alliance in Idlib, cautiously welcomed the deal. But it later said it was opposed to the deployment of Russian forces in the buffer, and said Ankara promised them that patrols by Moscow would be dropped. On September 29, a formerly US-backed Syrian rebel group, Jaysh al-Izza, active in northern Hama province, became the first rebel faction to reject the deal. It said the buffer zone should be carved out equally from both rebel-held territory and nearby zones controlled by forces loyal to Assad. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which along with other jihadists controls nearly 70 percent of the planned demilitarized zone, has not yet commented. — AFP