A leadership shakeup and drone attacks focus minds on the long-delayed, era-defining listing of the world’s biggest oil producer.

Aramco has vowed to restore its 12 million b/d of production capacity by the end of November but, at the time of writing, market watchers were mixed on whether the IPO will be pushed back again to let the dust settle on the Abqaiq and Khurais plant attacks.

“2020 is possible, but because of the projected size of IPO.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has valued Aramco at up to $2 trillion, making the IPO value around $100 billion. But most analysts see a valuation of up to $1.5 trillion as more realistic and are keen for more information to assess its market value. “Greater disclosure will always help,” Bernstein Research senior analyst Neil Beveridge said. “A clear and stable dividend policy will be important to attract investors.”

Key buyers are expected to be sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors both of which need to meet public or internal disclosure demands.

Regional model

Proceeds of Aramco’s IPO will be injected back into the economy, particularly the country’s sovereign wealth fund, to help spur non-oil growth as part of the Vision 2030, which seeks to wean the kingdom off oil income. The kingdom is seeking both a domestic and international listing but the jury is still out on whether it will secure a coveted most profitable company, with a net income of $111 billion in 2018, eclipsing giants such as Google, Exxon Mobil, and Amazon. It issued a bond prospectus in April this year for its debut $12 billion international bond sale, including nuggets of data about its various operations from refineries to pipelines.

This year, Aramco also published the first independent audit of its huge oil and gas reserves. The audit showed Aramco’s proved oil reserves at the end of 2017 were 263.1 billion barrels, or 2.2 billion barrels higher than previous estimates. Gas reserves stood at 319.5 trillion standard cubic feet, up from 302.3 trillion standard cubic feet in previous estimates.

But the biggest revelation was in August, when the company held its first ever earnings call with analysts and published its first-half earnings, which showed an 11.5 percent drop in net profit from the year-ago period to $46.9 billion. Despite the fall, Aramco held on to its rank as the world’s most profitable company. Aramco may still need to do more in terms of disclosure to justify a $2 trillion valuation,