Sea claimants should step back from the edge

ISLAND CLAIMS: Beijing may have gone too far when it demanded that talks will only start if Manila sets aside the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling

MUCH ink has been spilt, and a whole gamut of voices added, over the airwaves internationally since the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in the Hague came down with its comprehensive ruling over the South China Sea controversy on July 12.

Yet, it probably will be left to history to decide how or even whether the ruling will help or hinder a settlement of the overlapping maritime claims involving several regional countries and China.

One thing seems quite clear, though: that there is such a thing as public opinion, even in China and most certainly in the Philippines whose decision to bring its dispute with China to the court triggered the ruling despite China’s refusal to participate.

In the immediate aftermath of the ruling coming out, Philippine Foreign Secretary Perfecto Yasay came out with a statement calling for calm and sobriety, taking his cue no doubt from his president, Rodrigo Duterte, who had relayed prior to the ruling that he would not flaunt or taunt it if — as it turned out — the ruling favoured his country.

Yasay was quite roundly roasted by his countrymen for, in the words of one, appearing as if his country had not won its case.

China, too, showed signs of wanting to hide some of the more incendiary reports in its own media, obviously more than keenly aware that Chinese public opinion ran well ahead even of its own already rather strong official comments about the ruling.

Somewhat bellicose Chinese statements after the ruling were clearly meant mostly for the country’s domestic consumption. China, like all other countries, knows only too well that war serves nobody’s interests, least of all its own.

Notwithstanding rather angry public posturing, Chinese pragmatism appeared to rule the day. In the run-up to the ruling, some furious backroom diplomacy was in evidence, with the Chinese ambassador in Manila meeting with Duterte several times.

Duterte’s election seems like a godsend for Beijing as the Philippine president voiced readiness to engage in talks with the Chinese and even tapped former president Fidel Ramos as his personal envoy to China.

The Americans are, for once, kept on the back foot in all these exchanges between Manila and Beijing, as the Chinese probably couldn’t quite believe their luck that Duterte, in the words of a Philippine commentator, will actually help save China’s face.

But, have the Chinese, once again, made the grievous mistake of seeking to press their advantage a step too far?

Word out of Mongolia in recent days where a summit of Asian and European leaders was taking place had it that Yasay has rejected his Chinese counterpart’s demand that talks would start only on condition Manila sets aside the PCA ruling.

Back in Manila, Duterte met with Washington’s emissaries on Tuesday and reportedly said he will not sit down in talks with the Chinese, a remarkable about-turn from his earlier statements.

One can only hope that this is all posturing and that once further understandings are reached, Manila will indeed engage Beijing in faceto-face negotiations.

Washington had reportedly also lately been urging caution on all parties, in perhaps a sudden realisation that things can develop rather badly or even take an ugly turn.

With terror threats at home and in Europe, and latest developments in Turkey and the wider Middle East, the last thing the US needs at this particular moment is developments spinning out of control out in the East, with China in the eye of it all.

It is incumbent on all to walk back from the edge here. The PCA has spelt out that China cannot have it both ways: claiming all the benefits such as a 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone off its shorelines as contained in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) that China had signed up to, but also insisting on the legally nebulous “historical rights” to much of the South China Sea.

While its neighbours will concede that China has its own public opinion to appease, a reciprocal recognition on China’s part is also called for: that other nations, too, have their own respective public opinions to contend with.

China has set out to show that it will be a different sort of global power whose “peaceful rise” will bring in its wake “win-win” propositions for other nations near and far. To a large degree that has already been proven true. But, it is terrible if other nations are made to sacrifice their dignity as a trade-off.

The writer is

johnteo808@gmail.com