China’s assertion of its claims reflects its wariness of America

From meeting in Kunming on June 14 between Asean and China to commemorate 25 years of dialogue relations between the two parties ended in disarray. China used its leverage with Cambodia and Laos to block a joint statement on the South China Sea by Asean, after the grouping’s ministers had reached an agreement to issue the statement.

That statement expressed “serious concerns” over the South China Sea disputes which “have eroded trust and confidence, increased tensions and which may have the potential to undermine peace, security and stability” in the region. Malaysia had issued the statement, only to withdraw it later, reportedly because of frustration that the Asean decision was blocked by Chinese lobbying of some Asean governments.

These developments have occurred even as China is emerging as the leading trading partner and key investor of Southeast Asian economies. Southeast Asia’s historical experience is that the region would be seen by China as part of its zone of influence, just as Southeast Asian kingdoms had welcomed tributary relationships with China in the pre-colonial era. While their economic interests suggest that these states would align with a rising China, the divergent perspectives on the South China Sea have led maritime Southeast Asian states paradoxically to strengthen their ties with the United States.

The political reality is that Southeast Asian states do not pose a threat to China. A rising China which asserts its interests in the South China Sea will increase their wariness of China, even as economic linkages bind the region to China.

Today, the primary risks on China’s western borders are from separatist elements in the Uighur community as well as from Tibetan demands for independence. These pressures are domestic and limited in impact, although the self-styled Islamic State may take advantage of Uighur Islamic sentiments as part of its global jihad.

China’s leaders recognise that the only power with the capacity to threaten China is the US, the sole superpower, which has a network of alliance relationships in the AsiaPacific. American naval and air power dominates the western Pacific. These concerns have led China to focus eastwards towards the Pacific. China’s assertion of its claims in the East and South China Sea reflects these maritime interests.

While the PCA ruling was clearly against China, it is not enforceable. But, the tribunal’s decision will heighten tensions within Asean. It increases the likelihood that China will exert more pressure on the claimant states to negotiate on a bilateral basis and to give due recognition to China’s interests.

The writer

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