Trump unlikely to change policy on South China Sea
BEIJING: A Donald Trump presidency does not mean the United States will withdraw from the South China Sea, but rather will continue pursuing “regional hegemony”, Chinese academics said yesterday.
Ensuring “absolute control” over the South China Sea was the crux of US military strategy, according to what the authors said was China’s first-ever public report on the US military presence in the region, released yesterday.
“There will be no overturning change to US policy in the South China Sea,” said Wu Shicun, head of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, an influential Hainan-based think tank that wrote the report.
Trump rarely mentioned the South China Sea on the campaign trail, but concentrated on the economic relationship with Beijing, threatening to label China a currency manipulator and impose import tariffs on Chinese imports.
US commitments to its allies would not change, nor would its stance on protecting freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, said Wu.
Tensions in the South China Sea would likely grow in lock-step with China’s military growth, he added.
A patrol by US warships last month was dubbed “illegal” and “provocative” by the Chinese Defence Ministry.
“From the US perspective, China’s large-scale construction activities in the South China Sea confirmed US suspicion that China intended to implement an anti-access/area-denial strategy,” the report said.
There would be “more continuity than change” in Trump’s military policy in Asia-Pacific, said Zhu Feng, director of the South China Sea Center at Nanjing University.
Trump may not use the term “rebalancing” to the region, but he would likely retain most of policies.
Both academics agreed that there was a high possibility of increased US military spending in Asia-Pacific under Trump.
A Trump administration would “not be an exception” to other Republican-led governments that increase military spending when they take office, said Zhu Feng.
Zhu said the decision to release a public report now was not China “preparing for war” but rather to avoid an “arms race” between China and the US. Reuters