Economists expect stronger export growth in February

Economists expect average 17.28pc expansion for the month

EXPORTS are likely to grow fastest in nearly three years due to the improving global economic activities, said economists. Respondents to a NST Business poll see exports growing by an average 17.28 per cent and imports by 20.87 per cent, with trade balance averaging RM6.8 billion.

The median 17.28 per cent will be the highest monthly growth since April 2014, when exports expanded 18.6 per cent. In January, exports rose 13.6 per cent.

Economists at eight investment banks and research houses gave an export growth range of 14.8 to 20.3 per cent for the month, with trade balance at a low of RM4.4 billion and high of RM11.7 billion.

The International Trade and Industry Ministry will release the data today.

“Commodity exports are likely to lead the improvement. We estimate that exports of key commodities, including oil and liquefied natural gas, to have risen 27 per cent year-on-year in February,” said Standard Chartered Bank economist Edward Lee.

Exports of electronics, he added, might have picked up after weaker export growth of integrated circuits in January.

Imports were stronger than expected in January due a pickup in capital-goods imports.

In its annual report, Bank Negara Malaysia was more optimistic about the external sector, saying it would remain resilient despite the uncertainties in the global environment.

Both exports and imports are expected to strengthen due to projected improvements in growth and higher commodity prices.

Import growth is expected to continue to outpace export growth, resulting in a lower trade surplus.